Another winter is upon us! The season has been a little slow to develop this year compared to some of the record Octobers we have seen recently, but cold air is on the way. Besides the 10.7in (27cm) of snow the high summits received a week ago the summit has only picked up a total of 9in (23cm) since the end of September. Much of this snow never made it down to avalanche terrain as we reached the total with increments of 0.25-0.5 inches at a time. As is typical in the early season, Left Gully has developed the most notable snowfields and has seen some “ski descents” already.

In the near future significant weather changes are headed our way. A major system engulfed the region overnight Wednesday and is currently bringing heavy rain all the way to the summit of Mt. Washington which as of 10:00am Thursday morning has a temperature of 38F (3.3C). Models expect 1.5-2.5in (3.75-6.35cm) of water out of this system through early Friday morning. This will bring heat to any snow and ice on the mountain producing some rapid melting. Expect ice fall to be widespread.

The tail end of the system will usher in cold air producing snow early Friday and then on and off through the day in the form of upslope precipitation. 1-3in (2.5-7.5cm) are expected for northern valleys and more for higher elevations. Winds will shift from the south to the northwest and west. This will be conducive to movement of snow toward the east-facing aspects of Mt. Washington. Temperatures will continue to fall into the single degrees F over the weekend freezing freewater all over the mountain. Expect some slick conditions and rapid ice development. Realize ice will form quickly due to the low ambient air temperatures, but will be forming over warmer rock. Anticipate poor adhesion during the initial shot of cold air. After this precipitation event ends clearing weather will follow with no notable moisture in sight. We may start General Advisories this weekend depending on actual snow accumulations and loading from this storm. If not, Advisories will likely not begin this week due to the moisture starved long range forecast. But of course the natural world can be fickle so stay tuned!

GENERAL EARLY SEASON CONCERNS- We are in early winter in the high mountains so don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs require winter gear and equipment. Be aware that a small slab or sluff can be dangerous. This is particularly true in the steep gullies and slopes of Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines for early season ice climbers. As a climber picks their way through a route they will usually cross small pockets of snow. Often this snow has deposited over blue ice, making for a poor bond at the interface. Consider this ahead of time and place protection before crossing suspect slopes. It doesn't take much snow to knock you off your feet and depending how high you are this could be a significant problem. Remember if a snowfield is big enough to recreate on, it's big enough to avalanche.

Be aware of falling ice if we get into thaw periods before the real deep winter freeze. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of ice fall.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, install some fresh high quality alkaline batteries, and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We will soon have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.