Like a new pilot on a short runway the developing weather outlook is "touch and go"! All forecast predictions have the timing of the incoming weather event at about 5pm Monday evening; however, precipitation types are all over the map and could change frequently. We are anticipating rain, sleet, mixed precipitation and snow over Monday night and Tuesday. As of Monday morning a small band of moisture was moving south of us preceding a large band of precipitation moving through the Lake States and extreme western New York. This second band has a distinct west-east oriented snow-rain line that extends all the way to Oklahoma. We know that precipitation is coming with approximatly .75-1.10" of water equivalent (QPF) for the New Hampshire mountains. Many questions still surround how temperatures will effect precipitation type for the mountains and avalanche terrain. The best conclusions are pointing to snow changing to a mixed concoction followed again by snow as the cold front takes hold and brings in high winds and dropping temperatures. Mount Washington valleys can anticipate freezing rain into Tuesday morning causing some heavy icing followed by snow. The big answer to this guessing game will be how thick the temperature bands will be which will ultimately determine how much snow we get in the mountains. If you plan on traveling in avalanche terrain this week, expect changing conditions. This weather maker has the potential to dump accumulating snow on the mountain and will be accompanied by strong WNW winds on Tuesday which are ideal for loading new snow into avalanche terrain and creating unstable slabs. Pay attention to how this all play out if you plan on being in avalanche terrain over the next few days.

GENERAL EARLY SEASON CONCERNS- We are in early winter in the high mountains so don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs require winter gear and equipment. Be aware that a small slab or sluff can be dangerous. This is particularly true in the steep gullies and slopes of Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines for early season ice climbers. As climbers pick their way through a route they will usually cross small pockets of snow. Often this snow has been deposited over blue ice, making for a poor bond at the interface. Consider this ahead of time and place protection before crossing suspect slopes. It doesn't take much snow to knock you off your feet and depending how high you are this could be a significant problem. Remember if a snowfield is big enough to recreate on, it's big enough to avalanche.

Be aware of falling ice if we get into thaw periods before the real deep winter freeze. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of ice fall.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills. Pull out your beacon, install some fresh high quality alkaline batteries, and practice. Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.