Tuckerman Ravine will have HIGH, CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, and LOW avalanche danger today. Left Gully will have High avalanche danger. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on a variety of slope aspects and angles. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. The Bowl, Headwall, and Lip have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable in steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. Hillman's Highway has Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. Right gully has Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. The Lower Snowfields and the Little Headwall have little to no snow in them so they will remain "Not Posted". Forecasts for these locations will begin when needed.

Huntington Ravine will have CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, and LOW avalanche danger today. O'Dell's, Pinnacle, and Central Gullies will have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable in steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. South, Yale, Damnation, and North Gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. The Escape Hatch has Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

Finally the first region wide storm is upon us! The entire area is under a Winter Storm Warning as of late last night and will remain in effect into tomorrow. As of 7am this morning the 2000 ft level has picked up 5" (12.7cm) while the summit only reported 2.8" (7.1cm) of new snow. This should rapidly change through the day as heavy snow is expected eventually piling up to 10-16" (25-40cm) for the mountains with some isolated higher amounts. One concern I have is the cloud thickness evidenced by some heavy riming of stellars and spatial dendrites this morning at Hermit Lake and Pinkham. These crystals produced a density of 12% even with temperatures from 8-17F (-13to-8C). Until upslope snow begins Tuesday it is possible that the lower elevations will pick up more accumulation than the higher summits. We'll see.

SE winds today from 40-60mph (65-100kph) will bring new snow into northern aspects and cross load many slopes possessing a more easterly position. The big question is where are the bed surfaces for all this snow to land on and become a stability concern? Left Gully is by far the biggest stand out hence the highest rating of the two Ravines. Other secondary concerns to watch are easterly aspects with current bed surfaces namely the Chute area in Tuckerman and O'Dells, Pinnacle, and Central in Huntington. During this morning's meeting the Snow Rangers discussed the potential of sluffing snow being problematic on the recently developed water ice. As snow totals increase through the day sluffing will pick up on the Tuckerman Headwall and in numerous areas in Huntington. O'Dell's and Pinnacle are 2 locations to pay particular attention to for sluffing potential. During the overnight winds will shift rapidly to the NW and increase to over 80 mph (130 kph). This should move a tremendous amount of snow from high alpine areas down onto primarily SE aspects, but all E aspects will be effected. Areas like the Tuckerman Headwall and Lip or Huntington's Central Gully and O'Dell's should be heavily effected by this wind shift. Temperatures will remain cold while winds should decrease slightly on Tuesday as upslope energy will continue to bring more snow to the mountains. Anticipate lower density snow tomorrow to be easily transported to the Ravines. Expect elevated avalanche rating for tomorrow.

By now you should have refreshed your avalanche skills and your beacon should have fresh high quality alkaline batteries powering it. Your annual early season review of safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and signing up for an avalanche course should all be behind you. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Remember, maintaining avalanche skill takes practice and effort. Your life depends on it!