Huntington Ravine will have HIGH, CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, and LOW avalanche danger today. Central Gully will have High avalanche danger. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. Travel in this area is not recommended. O'Dell's, Pinnacle, Yale, Damnation and North Gullies will have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable in steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. South Gully will have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. The Escape Hatch has Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

Our first real winter storm brought 15.8" (40 cm) of new snow to the Summit and 12.2" (31 cm) to Hermit Lake. As reported yesterday, the initial snow densities were around 12% as a result of riming on the snow crystals. Jeff described some of the stellars as looking like breakfast cereal from the thick coat of rime. As yesterday's storm progressed the snow became less dense, weighing in around 8%. The different crystal types and densities have resulted in noticeable layers in the new snow. Winds were our of the SE for most of the day and then rapidly shifted to the west around 6 pm last night. Today we are expecting NW winds between 30 and 50 mph (48 and 82 kph) along with additional snow accumulation through the day from wrap around moisture from yesterday's storm. It looks like 2 to 4+" (5 to 10 cm) may fall today.

As far as stability goes, we have all the bulls-eye data we need to believe that unstable snow is going to exist in most forecast areas, hence the elevated danger ratings. While the forecasted wind speeds are lower than what we would typically see from a storm like this, we believe that they will be effective in loading snow into the Ravines and creating unstable slabs. The lighter density snow that fell later in the storm will transport easier than the early 12% snow. One thing that raises a red flag about the way this is playing out is that I think that the conditions are ideal for soft slab development and be more sensitive to human triggers. If wind speeds reach the upper end of the forecast, I would expect to see natural slab avalanche activity in some locations as well, notably those rated High. Sluffing is another concern today to consider if you are still thinking of heading into either Ravine.

It is certainly worth discussing our early season cover and how that will effect avalanche activity. Many of our forecast areas have spotty coverage and are not ready to produce large avalanches. That being said, they still can produce an avalanche that would be seem plenty big enough to a person. Water ice that has been buried can act as a great bed surface for avalanches. This is a significant concern right now in both Ravines. Other forecast areas, such as Hillman's Highway and South Gully, have bed surfaces in their start zones but are otherwise very bushy. Left Gully and the south side of Tuckerman Ravine have the largest snowfields and gullies and have the best potential for larger avalanches. Now that we have a good amount of snow to work with, I expect to see the landscape change over the next few days as winds blow snow into the gullies and start making larger snowfields. Remember that it isn't the size of the avalanche that counts, it is the consequences.

By now you should have refreshed your avalanche skills and your beacon should have fresh high quality alkaline batteries powering it. Your annual early season review of safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and signing up for an avalanche course should all be behind you. We now have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org. Remember, maintaining avalanche skill takes practice and effort. Your life depends on it!