This is going to be an interesting day for weather and avalanche junkies. There are a lot of factors to consider when predicting what will happen today when it comes to avalanche activity so lets dive right into the nitty gritty. Thursday's storm brought in about 8" (20cm) of 10% snow followed by clear days with low winds that picked up yesterday. Snow loaded into aspects containing predominately an eastern component as SW to W winds increased late in the day gusting to near 60mph (97kph) through the evening. The stage is now set with new loading in avalanche start zones as today's storm screams through Ohio at a rapid clip. This frontal system is a fast mover and will dump its moisture rapidly, most of which will come after dark. As we have alluded to over the past few days our snowbank piling December is about to come to an end as high temperatures and rain are the dominate feature of this system. Temperatures here at Hermit Lake have just crept above the freezing mark while the Summit is currently holding at 26F (-3.5C). This likely puts the Ravine's start zones somewhere in between these figures. The big difficulty we are facing with is exactly what the high temperature will be for these areas and when. Minor precipitation bands will move into our area as a precursor to the main front coming late in the day. Will these bands come to the higher mountains as rain?, freezing rain?, something else? The answer to this million dollar question will tell us when our next avalanche cycle will begin. Rain on cold slab is never a good scenario hence the High danger rating posted for the two Ravines today. But the jury is still out on exactly when and how much warm moisture we will get from the 4000 to 5500ft level. The temperatures produced by the models are out of agreement and are hovering around the freezing point so a couple degrees one way or another will make a significant difference on our precipitation type.

The bottom line is that we will get rain in our start zone with the main frontal passage after dark, but we may get rain on and off during daylight hours. This is the main point to focus on. If rain is falling and you are in avalanche terrain you are in the wrong place. Although this will be the main driver for a natural cycle until then you need to quite weary of cold slabs that developed over the past 24 hours which may be quite sensitive to a human trigger. With all the critical timing issues today and natural and human triggered avalanches being likely on a variety of aspects and angles, travel in avalanche terrain today is not recommended.

As the front passes tonight with perhaps a rumble of thunder the temperature will plummet into the single numbers F in the higher mountains locking up everything in its wake. Upslope snow should follow behind the front which may create another cold slab stability issue tomorrow so stay tuned.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is open with continuous snow from top to bottom. Expect the trail to get quite hard by tomorrow morning. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route for mountaineers. Crampons, an ice axe and the ability to properly use this equipment are recommended for safe travel on this route.