I know it is going to be an interesting day when our discussions on ratings focus on the details of EXTREME vs. HIGH avalanche danger for the day. As you can see we concluded that HIGH was the best rating for today and we are all confident that avalanches are going to occur. The reason for this, in short, is a significant amount of light density snow fell during the storm and increasing winds out of the NNW will blow it all around in the Ravines and create unstable slab conditions. Yesterday's storm left 14" (36 cm) of snow at Hermit Lake and 13.4" (34 cm) at the snow plot near the Harvard Cabin. The Summit recorded 8.9" and all three snow recordings came in at a very light 6.8% density. Winds are forecasted to increase to 40 to 60 mph (65 to 96 kph) with higher gusts and are expected to be out of the NNW before committing to the NW tonight when they will continue to increase to 50 to 70 mph (80 to 113 kph). These winds will have no problem moving the new light density snow into the Ravines. With the Summit measuring about 5" (13 cm) less than our snow plots down lower, we are left wondering how much snow the 5000' level picked up. It isn't a key piece of data but it seems possible that it may match the Summit snow totals more than the 14" down here at Hermit Lake. Either way, there will be enough to create significant slab avalanche conditions. With the wind direction being NNW, we are expecting south aspects to be more active during this event than they have in recent avalanche cycles. This would include Right Gully in Tuckerman and Damnation and Yale in Huntington. I also think that new avalanches have the potential to step down into "older" layers of windslab that were deposited during our last two storms. If this occurs, the resulting avalanches would have more destructive force than those that only entrain new snow. I put older in quotes because the last two storms were Saturday and Monday. I hope you can get out and enjoy this new powder but I do advise that you stay out of avalanche terrain as we will be at the upper end of the HIGH danger rating today.

Looking ahead at the weather, there aren't any more storms piling up on our doorstep. Temperatures are going to plummet through the day and into tonight with lows on the Summit reaching around -20 F (-29 C) tonight. Tomorrow will remain cold with temperatures below 0 F in the mountains and then mild air will move in for the weekend.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is open with plenty of new snow. THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route for mountaineers. Crampons, an ice axe and the ability to properly use this equipment are recommended for safe travel on this route.