Huntington Ravine has CONSIDERABLE and LOW avalanche danger today. North, Damnation and Yale Gullies have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. All other forecast areas in Huntington Ravine have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in avalanche terrain.

It definitely feels like a spring melt out up here. Over the past two days our snow stake at Hermit Lake has dropped 17" (43 cm) and we haven't been below freezing since Sunday. Yesterday's high temperature at Hermit Lake was 54 F (9 C)! This stretch of warm weather will come to an end today as a strong cold front blasts through the region. Until this occurs we are still posting the avalanche danger at Considerable in most areas. The snow has been exposed to a long duration of warm temperatures and has had time to adjust to the conditions. Open water is visible in a number of places in Huntington and drainage channels are present in all areas. The concern today is rain falling on the already saturated snow. This could trigger an avalanche, especially if we receive the rain quickly. The forecast is calling for .1 to .25" (.25 to .64 cm) of rain with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. The times during and immediately after the rain will be when instability is at its peak and not the time to be in avalanche terrain. The area of most concern is the Bowl in Tuckerman Ravine. This has the largest slabs that could be ripped out by the rain as well as the threat of the Cutler River rising and acting as a trigger. This has historically resulted in some significant avalanches. If you are perceptive, you noticed that Damnation, Yale and North Gullies have dropped to Low avalanche danger. This is because the warm weather has melted a lot of the snow in these gullies leaving behind only pockets of snow. That is not to say that they are recommended for climbing right now. Running water over and under ice, and the potential for rock and ice fall from this thaw present a real hazard in all of the gullies in Huntington as well as in Tuckerman.

Once the rain has ended and the cold front moves in dropping temperature back below freezing, our stability trend will begin to improve and head toward low avalanche danger in the existing snow. Summit temperatures are forecasted to drop to 20 F (-7 C) by sunset and continue falling to around 10 F (-12 C) overnight. Winds are going to shift to the west and increase substantially exceeding 100 mph (161 kph) by the end of the day. An upslope flow will develop and we may receive a couple of inches of snow tonight. This change in the weather will begin freezing all of the free water in the snowpack creating slick conditions around the mountain. I would also expect significant ice dams to develop over the next couple of days. As an ice climber, I'm inclined to give the gullies time to heal from this dramatic weather before I go climbing.

Bring snowshoes or skis if you plan on doing any traveling off the beaten path as post-hole conditions are spectacular right now. Without either of these tools you will punch through the saturated snowpack and have a hard time getting around.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route for mountaineers. Crampons, an ice axe and the ability to properly use this equipment are recommended for safe travel on this route. The John Sherburne Ski Trail is open with some bare spots.