Mother Nature seems to be as confused as the political pundits about what goes on in New Hampshire in January. We're in the middle of a bit of a weather roller coaster right now. As far as avalanche hazard goes, it's easy for me to say that stability is pretty good. After a couple days of very unseasonably warm weather, Mount Washington dropped back below the freezing point early yesterday afternoon. Assisted by the strong winds overnight, the heat has left the snowpack, replacing soft deep mush with a slick frozen surface. Yesterday's snowplot observations found the warming had penetrated at least 1.5ft (45cm) below the surface of the snow. The thickness will vary depending on where exactly you are, but this top layer of snow is what is now locked up as an ice crust. If you were to go into the ravines to dig snowpits and look for layers, you'd have to get down through this mass before you found anything that resembled a layered snowpack. And you'd probably need to bring a couple of your sturdiest shovels to get through it all.

Although avalanches aren't a big concern for us today, the conditions on the mountain present additional hazards you'll need to be prepared for. The slick frozen conditions make traveling with an ice axe and crampons incredibly important if you plan on entering steep terrain. This includes any trail up to the summit as well going into either ravine. Any fall will need to be arrested quickly before you have the chance to accelerate downhill. Ice climbers should be aware of the potential for ice dams to have formed. There was a large amount of free water yesterday in the snow and on the upper mountain. With a quick change back to cold weather, this water creates pressure behind newly formed ice while it tries to drain out. This usually takes some time to happen naturally. Or, it takes an ice climber to artificially create holes where the water can escape. Sometimes this is no more than a benign nuisance, but even just getting your hand or foot soaked on a climb could carry severe consequences.

While today we are back below freezing, tomorrow's weather continues the roller coaster ride. We're expecting snow or sleet to begin late at night and turn over to rain later in the morning. There is a lot of moisture in this system, up to 1" (2.5cm) of total water equivalent. I'm hoping the National Weather Service's forecasts are about as accurate as the pollsters for the primary were, and that snow has an upset win over rain by the time it's all said and done on Friday night. Unfortunately, I'm afraid this time I believe the forecast for rain is going to be accurate. Let's cross our fingers and hope that the mountain can withstand yet another blow of warm wet weather before heading back into a "normal" winter.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route for mountaineers. Crampons, an ice axe and the ability to properly use this equipment are recommended for safe travel on this route. The John Sherburne Ski Trail is open with hard icy conditions and bare spots.