It's days like this that make me never want to move away from New England. The skies are a beautiful monochromatic shade of gray, spitting a mix of ice pellets and snow as warm air aloft inhibits the growth of snow crystals. With a change from mixed precipitation to rain expected later today, there might even be a nice coating of ice on my car by quitting time. And if all that weren't enough to make me happy, avalanche danger is rated Low today. Looking at our weather history over the past several days shows the reasons for the Low rating. In short, we had a period of deep thaw, followed by below freezing weather for over 24 hours. These conditions have allowed the snow to settle into a very stable state. That leaves us with today's weather as the most important variable for determining avalanche hazard. We're expecting 0.5" to 0.75" (1.25 to 1.9cm) of total liquid equivalent by the end of our forecast period. Some of this will fall as mixed precipitation, but eventually it should turn over to a rain event. Normally this amount of water, whether it's rain or snow, is enough to raise the red flags. However, we have a stable, albeit slick, base and the intitial bonding of new precip we've seen this morning has been very good. Additionally, we don't believe there will be enough snow or other types of frozen precipitation to create instabilities and drive the danger rating above Low. As for the rain, after the recent prolonged thaw the snowpack is well prepared to handle this event. If we ever had to choose a time to get a half inch of rain, now would be as good of a time as any other during the winter.

Although avalanches aren't a big concern for us today, the conditions on the mountain present additional hazards you'll need to be prepared for. Today's a good day to pull out your most tried and tested waterproof hardshell. Getting soaked in a winter rain event is not a pleasant experience, to say the least. Also, the slick frozen conditions make traveling with an ice axe and crampons incredibly important if you plan on entering steep terrain. This includes any trail up to the summit as well going into either ravine. Any fall will need to be arrested quickly before you have the chance to accelerate downhill.

It does look as though we have some relief coming from the January thaw. There may be some upslope snow later tonight as today's system moves away, but we won't be seeing any significant snow until the end of the weekend. The forecast models show something developing for Monday, but confidence in this is low at this time. There have also been some mentions of snow showers through the early part of next week. We'll be taking another look at the weekend weather forecast later today. What we can figure out will be posted in the Weekend Update section of our website, www.tuckerman.org.

THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route for mountaineers. Crampons, an ice axe and the ability to properly use this equipment are recommended for safe travel on this route. The John Sherburne Ski Trail is open with hard icy conditions and bare spots.