| Posted: 8:22 a.m., Friday, January 18, 2008 |
This morning we're treated to a few inches of new snow on the mountain and more is expected through the first part of the day. 3-4" (8-10cm) cover the lower half of the mountain this morning and forecasts are calling for just a couple more inches before the snow guns shut down. Although it's not quite what we want to hear, some reports are calling for a brief changeover to freezing rain by late morning. I'll have mine without the junk please! Although the falling snow is capturing our attention now, by midday I think all eyes will be on the wind. Summit winds are currently blowing out of the S at 50mph (81kph) but change is in store. As the hours roll by we expect to see the wind shift to the W and then toward the NW for the transition to darkness. This clockwise wind shift will be accompanied by an increase in wind speeds as gusts first push 70mph (113kph) and then make their bid for triple digits F (161kph). Even if we do develop a thin crust from a period of freezing rain you can expect the winds to tear it apart like jackals on a carcass. In addition to today's new accumulation, there's probably some snow remaining from the beginning of the week that will be available for transport once we reach speeds in excess of 60mph (97kph). When driven down into the ravines by the merciless wind, transported snow will be largely falling on slick old surface. This crusty layer has not shown great promise in selecting a long-term neighbor so we'll have to wait and see how this new suitor fairs in the bonding process. Due to the changing nature of the winds you should expect N aspects to be the dominant concern of the morning followed by E and SE aspects later in the day. As winds ramp up you can also expect slabs to be formed with increasing densities. This has caused us to pull out the High slats for the day with terrain, weather and snowpack all coming together to form an opus of avalanche activity.
The weather forecast for the holiday weekend is still being sorted out but right now it looks like we'll be seeing some chilly air to delight the masses. Scattered snow showers are expected to add some winter ambiance but no big powder dump is forecasted for your extra day away from the office. Keep your fingers crossed and your thermos full of cocoa.
Although the new snow is trying to cover it up, the hard old surface is poking through in places. Until it has vanished you will need crampons, an ice axe and solid self arrest skills to travel safely in steep terrain. This includes travel on the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail has some new snow to make you temporarily forget about the solid base hidden below.
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
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