Huntington Ravine will have Considerable and Moderate avalanche danger today. North and Damnation Gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steep terrain. All other forecast areas in Huntington Ravine will have Considerable avalanche danger today. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

Today's discussion is a tale of two conditions. The first is what we have now and the second is what will be by the end of today. Right now, most forecast areas have Moderate avalanche danger. Relatively new slabs are present throughout both Ravines with the January thaw layer showing up here and there. This spatial variability provides some safe travel options on the old surface in areas such as Hillman's Highway in Tuckerman and Damnation Gully in Huntington. It is the newer slabs that are sitting over the hard icy January thaw layer that create the potential for people to trigger avalanches. Expect these slabs to be sensitive due to cold weather keeping settlement at bay. Despite Summit winds exceeding 100 mph (161 kph) early yesterday, there are many areas that harbor slabs that do not show signs of wind effect, including forecast areas in Huntington Ravine. I mention this because Huntington is more prone to scouring during high winds than Tuckerman.

Today's Considerable rating reflects the conditions we are expecting by the end of the day. A fast moving clipper will bring snow to the mountains with 1-3" (2.5 to 7.6 cm) of accumulation. Winds have already begun their shift to the SW and forecasted speeds range from 45 to 60 mph (72 to 96 kph) early and increasing to 65 to 85 mph (105 to 137 kph) with higher gusts. As snow falls it will be loaded into the Ravines, especially on NE aspect with cross-loading occurring on other aspects. I haven't lost sight of the fact that 1 to 3" isn't a lot of snow, especially if your looking for powder turns. However, with increasing winds loading the new snow into lee areas it can add up to a significant amount in avalanche terrain. Add that to the slabs discussed above and the bed surface this is all trying to bond to and we have conditions that make me think that natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Expect areas on the southern sides of the Ravines to have more stability issues than the northern sides due to the forecasted wind direction. This is why Damnation and North remain at Moderate today. While Right Gully is posted at Considerable, I don't expect it to be as much of a concern as Left Gully, Hillman's Highway or the Bowl.

Although the new snow is trying to cover it up, the hard old surface is still poking through in places. Until it has vanished you will need crampons, an ice axe and solid self arrest skills to travel safely in steep terrain. This includes travel on the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with good coverage from top to bottom.