Huntington Ravine has MODERATE and LOW avalanche danger today. Escape Hatch, South, Odell, Pinnacle, and Central Gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. Yale, Damnation, and North Gullies have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

January has now come and gone, and I am certainly not shedding any tears saying goodbye to that month. We received a total of about 42" (106cm) of snow in January here at Hermit Lake, yet the depth is exactly the same as it was on January 1. Even worse was the Summit's meager 21.5" (54cm) snow total for the month. Anyhow, the big news for the start of February is the winter storm that's poised to strike later today. It's not going to be like the Valentine's Day storm from last year, but we're hoping to fare better up here than areas farther south or in the valleys. Snow showers should begin around late morning, change over to sleet for a few hours this evening, then change back to snow later tonight. 2-4" (5-10cm) of snow is anticipated before the change to sleet; this snow will begin while the atmosphere is still cold, so it will have lighter densities at the start. As the system moves through, the upper level air will warm and we'll start to see higher snow densities culminating in even higher densities when the sleet arrives. For the better part of today, winds will be SSE and increasing in velocity, which will work toward loading new snow into the southern and western sides of the ravines. In Tuckerman Ravine, Hillman's Highway and Left Gully, as well as the rest of the Boott Spur ridge, have the most favorable aspects for loading with these winds. In Huntington, Odell and South gullies will be the greatest concern; however, Escape Hatch, Pinnacle, and Central gullies will collect some of this new snow as well. In addition to the wind direction, the wind speeds will play a role in the upcoming avalanche cycle. Winds will be increasing through the day topping out 65mph (105kph) with higher gusts possible. This will allow early arriving snow to be blown into softer slabs, but as the day progresses we'll see increasing slab densities from the stronger winds. Combined with the changes in snow densities expected from the warming of the air, this storm will begin to create an "upside down" snowpack with heavier snow being deposited on top of lighter, weaker snow. Following the sleet snow will return, potentially leaving us 4-8" (10-20cm) for a storm total from the main system. We might also be treated to an additional couple inches of upslope accumulation through the weekend, so we anticipate avalanche elevated danger ratings for the weekend. With all that said, until the snow starts to fly, conditions are similar to what they were yesterday. Huntington is dominated by old surface, with pockets of newer snow here and there. Tuckerman has more well-developed slabs as well as old surface exposed in some areas. As always, solid routefinding is a necessary skill for traveling safely in avalanche terrain.

It is important to realize that as this system moves in, avalanche danger will be on the rise. While we expect to be in Moderate conditions for most of the day, stability concerns will quickly ramp up through the rating definition this afternoon. As this occurs avalanche danger will hedge towards the Considerable range in some areas as we move from natural avalanches being "unlikely" towards being "possible" near the end of our forecast period. While we put a lot of trust in the weather forecasters' abilities whenever we head to the mountains, ultimately you should always be alert for changing conditions. Today is one of those days where the conditions can change quickly. I would recommend an early start if you are hoping to do any climbing today. Although you may be starting your climb on hard old surface, slabs large enough to avalanche can develop in less time than it takes to lead a pitch.

Crampons, an ice axe and solid self arrest skills are needed to travel safely if you plan on traveling in steep terrain, including the Lion Head Winter Route. Many areas have large expanses of bulletproof old surface that resembles alpine ice. Sliding falls on this surface are not one bit enjoyable. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with a mix of icy crust and softer windblown sections.