| Posted: 8:26 a.m., Tuesday, February 5, 2008 |
There are a lot of variables factoring into today's advisory. A fast moving system has deposited some new snow on the mountain and bands of precipitation paired with some upslope energy may provide more snow and mixed precipitation through the day. So far we have recorded just over an inch (2.54 cm) of new snow on our storm boards at the Harvard Cabin and at Hermit Lake. Precipitation is currently slowing down but another couple inches of snow and mixed precipitation are expected through the day today. We also had around 1.5" (3.8 cm) of upslope snow the day before that is still available for transport above treeline. What I am seeing on the lower part of the mountain makes it seem like there is quite a bit more snow due to the amount of drifting that has occurred since the new snow began. The winds will be the key in today's ratings as they are going to shift from the south to the west and increase steadily through the day to speeds of 60 to 80 mph (96 to 128 kph) by late afternoon and early evening. I expect areas with north aspects to have stability issues earlier than those with south aspects due to the winds being out of the south right now. The other factor is increasing densities of new precipitation as warm air aloft moves in. This will deposit heavier snow and sleet over the lighter snow that has fallen creating an upside down snowpack. If precipitation shuts down and we don't receive additional accumulation today, some areas may struggle to reach the High rating. These areas would primarily be the south aspects that won't receive the same amount of loading as north and east aspects today. With that said, they are not immune to the development of unstable slabs due to the increasing densities of precipitation.
Another low pressure system is on the heels of this one and its track has turned for the better. We will see mixed precipitation from this event begin late tonight and switch to snow for tomorrow. This should keep snow stability issues interesting, so check tomorrow's advisory before heading into avalanche terrain.
Crampons, an ice axe and solid self arrest skills are needed to travel safely if you plan on traveling in steep terrain, including the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with new snow and full coverage.
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
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