There are detailed concerns about today's rating so read on.

It's been quite an interesting week with plenty of natural avalanche activity due to a great snowfall start to February around the White Mountains. Overnight we had avalanche activity in Dodge's Drop, the Tuckerman Bowl over to the Lip as well as Odell, Central, and Yale gullies in Huntington Ravine. This certainly gives us some clues to the degree of instability left around our forecast areas. We have just come down from High avalanche danger and feel we are at the upper end of the Considerable rating in many locations particularly those with N and E facing aspects. Great examples in Huntington are the Escape Hatch, South, Odell and Pinnacle gullies. Light winds gusting for short periods to 35-40 mph (55-65kph) was enough to move some snow sitting above treeline into start zones causing a round of avalanche activity. This history is very important to remember today as we still have a great deal of snow sitting above treeline that's just waiting, waiting,...and waiting to be picked up by the wind train! Forecasts are conflicting about wind speeds by 15 mph (24kph) will be critical this afternoon for snow loading into both Ravines. Winds are currently light but will increasing this afternoon. 15-35mph (24-55kph) is one forecast while another states 20-50mph (32-80 kph). Evidence we see points to 35 (55kph)+/- being more likely than 50 (80), but it will be very important to watch what is happening in the field and be ready for snow transport. If we move above the 35 mph (55kph) forecast to 40-50mph (65-80kph) be prepared for Considerable to move towards High increasing the potential for natural activity. Either way this wind increase will coincide with a wind shift to the SW this afternoon progressing to the S after dark. This will load predominately E facing aspects initially and then those with a NE and N facing component later as winds increase. These later loading periods will bring snow into areas we already have the most concern about.

The take home point today is we are coming down from High overnight to Considerable which says HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE PROBABLE. Field observations yesterday confirmed this by the snappy nature of the snowpack as we saw large shooting cracks in some test slopes locations. As the afternoon approaches be prepared for new snow loading into lee areas from snow sitting in alpine zones. This may create an increased instability in many locations.

The storm forecasted for tonight will bring snow to the mountain just after dark. We are expecting +/- 8" (20cm) in addition to increased winds which will finally pick up the majority of snow in alpine areas and dump it into the Ravines. Winds will rage Sunday night and Monday as an arctic air mass brings temperatures into the -15F (-26C) range. Expect an elevated avalanche danger with at least some areas posted at HIGH tomorrow and Monday. This incoming storm will once again bring more snow into and outside of our avalanche forecast area. As new terrain develops it will also increase the bed surfaces for avalanche activity so pay attention to avalanche issues in all your mountain travels. This is particularly true if this winter snowfall pace continues.

Crampons, an ice axe and solid self arrest skills are recommended for travel in steep terrain. This includes the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with full coverage.