Huntington Ravine has MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. North, Damnation, and Yale gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steep terrain. All other forecast areas have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in avalanche terrain.

Even with relatively little new precipitation winds continued to move snow around in avalanche terrain until the afternoon as velocities began to subside. All new slabs are sitting on the rain crust from Wednesday and in most locations you will find poor bonding between the two layers. Cold temperatures have kept the consolidation process to a minimum so anticipate slabs to have elastic energy available to propagate a fracture line.

A number of areas posted at Considerable are not there yet but are expected to have increasing instability issues with afternoon snowfall. Hillman's Highway and Left gully in Tuckerman and The Escape Hatch, South, Odell, Pinnacle, and Central gullies in Huntington are all actually at Moderate as of 8 o'clock the morning. This should change this afternoon as snow moves into the area on a SW wind around 60-70mph (96-113kph). A couple of inches (5cm) will likely fall by dark. This will load new slab into the aforementioned locales moving these gullies to Considerable in the afternoon. Watch the skies closely and alter your plans to stay safe in avalanche terrain. Currently the center Bowl over through the Lip harbor the greatest concern as new snow brought in on Saturday was sheltered from any scouring winds. This is precisely what we discussed in yesterday's advisory as a strong lee area of concern therefore it holds a solid Considerable rating this morning.

As precipitation continues late today it will become heavier after dark as mixing begins on the road to all rain through the higher summits. The entire event is expected to bring us +/- 1" (2.54cm) of water equivalent so we should see a fair amount of rain on our snowpack. The combination of cold slab on a previous rain crust with +/- .5" (1.27cm) of rain will ramp up instability issues rapidly. We will likely be in a High rating tomorrow. The current crust is somewhat impermeable in numerous locations depending on elevation. I think initially liquid water will pool and run downhill on top of this crust adding to instability issues for the slabs on top. It's likely that liquid will eventually seep through the crust, but probably not until the damage has been down. An avalanche cycle for multiple aspects is likely as all this occurs.

If you do venture into Tuckerman today realize a large group coming up from Hermit Lake yesterday got way off the main trail and laid a wide track high to the uphill right of the Tuckerman Ravine trail. This new route brings you into avalanche terrain. Breaking a new route would be more effort, but a better option. As always, crampons, an ice axe, and solid self arrest skills are needed for travel in steep terrain. This includes the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with full coverage.