Snow geeks and powder junkies rejoice! A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 2 pm this afternoon until 7 pm Wednesday. The mountains are expected to receive the bulk of the snow from this one which is a nice change from the usual pattern. Light snow has just begun on the mountain and may continue through the morning without much accumulation. The real storm is scheduled to begin this afternoon with the heaviest precipitation falling overnight. A favorable upslope flow will continue the snow through most of the day tomorrow. Total water equivalents are forecasted between .9 and 1.64" (2.3 and 4.2 cm) for our area. Mountain snow totals are forecasted to range from 8 to 16" (20 to 40 cm) with the National Weather Service mentioning "IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...AS MUCH AS 18 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION." As you may have guessed by now, this is going to effect snow stability.

Today's Considerable rating reflects where we are going to be later in the day. Right now most locations still have Low avalanche danger with the exception of the Bowl, Lip and Headwall which are within the Moderate rating. If you get out early today, you still have reasonable travel options in avalanche terrain. Expect the avalanche danger to increase through the day as snow falls and accumulates on the mountain. New snow will find a variety of surfaces to land on including sun crusts on south aspects, wind slab and a dominant icy surface. This icy surface is SLICK and won't be too welcoming when the new snow tries to establish a bond with it. Due to the amount of snow and expected intensity of the snowfall later in the day, we have rated all areas Considerable except the Little Headwall. With that said, expect areas on the south side of the Ravines to get there earlier based on SW winds. Today's winds are forecasted to be between 15 and 30 mph (24 and 48 kph) out of the SW. These are not ideal speeds for wind loading, but I do think this will still be a factor, especially in areas like Hillman's Highway, Left Gully, South Gully and Odell Gully. Overnight winds will move to the S then SE and then shift rapidly to the NW which is where they are expected to remain through the day tomorrow. Tomorrow's wind speeds on the summits are forecasted at 35 to 50 mph (48 to 80 kph) with higher gusts. This will result in substantial wind loading in both Ravines. If this storm plays out as expected, anticipate HIGH or EXTREME avalanche danger for tomorrow.

After this storm we will have a period of high pressure on Thursday and Friday. Another system is forecasted to bring us some snow for the weekend. At this time it looks like it could be a couple of inches or the system could re-develop into something more significant. The active weather pattern is expected to continue into next week.

If you plan on being in steep terrain, make sure you have crampons, an ice axe and the ability to self arrest. The icy surface that is around the mountain provides the potential for long sliding falls. This includes the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with an icy base that is eagerly waiting to be buried.