This recent storm didn't produce its forecasted maximum snowfall for the mountains, but we did pick up a good amount of new snow. The Harvard Cabin and Hermit Lake snow plots measured 8.7" (22 cm) of new snow with a density of 9.7%. Not too shabby if you ask me. The Summit didn't fair as well with a storm total so far of 5.4" (13.7 cm) with a density of 8.8%. The upslope flow that we have been anticipating for today has weakened some but 2 to 4" (5 to 10 cm) of additional accumulation are forecasted for today. Snow began yesterday with light SW winds and picked up when they shifted to the S around 6:00 pm last night. They then shifted to the SE at 10:00 pm and decreased. Now winds on the summit are light and variable. This means that we have not seen much wind transport of the new snow. A break in the fog allowed me to see most areas around the Ravine and I can say with confidence that we do not have High avalanche danger right now. Evidence of loose snow avalanches from Dodge's Drop, Duchess, the Lower Snowfields and around the Bowl was visible and there is actually a fair amount of old surface showing in Tuckerman Ravine. We know we have new snow available for wind transport sitting above treeline. Now we are waiting for the winds to shift to the NW and pick up. They are forecasted to be out of the NW 25 to 40 mph (40 to 65 kph) with higher gusts today. This is not the typical wind speeds that we see after a storm. The lower wind speeds won't provide us with aggressive loading, wind packing, scouring etc. Instead I expect to see steady wind loading occur with increasingly higher density slabs forming over the unconsolidated snow or icy surface, depending on the location. This will begin as soon as winds pick up. Hourly observations from this storm have shown the snow moving on winds in the 20 mph range. So, here is the summary of bulls-eye data:

1. Between 5" and 9" of new snow with densities between 9 and 10%.

2. 2" to 4" of additional accumulation expected in the mountains today.

3. Winds shifting to the NW and increasing to 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts today and continuing to increase to 50 mph this evening.

Expect increasing avalanche danger through the day with natural and human triggered avalanches being likely by the end of the day.

We will have a period of high pressure and cold temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Another system is forecasted to bring us some snow for the weekend. At this time it looks like it could be a couple of inches or the system could re-develop into something more significant. The active weather pattern is expected to continue into next week with the potential for some mixed precipitation.

If you plan on being in steep terrain, make sure you have crampons, an ice axe and the ability to self arrest. The icy surface that is around the mountain provides the potential for long sliding falls. This includes the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with new snow.