Huntington Ravine has MODERATE and LOW avalanche danger today. The Escape Hatch, South, Odell, Pinnacle, Central, and Yale gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steep terrain. Damnation and North gullies have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

Once again I found myself walking around Hermit Lake this morning trying to keep my mouth shut. This was in part because it's below zero Fahrenheit, but also because my jaw kept dropping as I discovered recent fracture lines in areas that haven't seen a lot of avalanche activity in recent years. Examples include a few shallow gullies on the Boott Spur ridge, in the rocks up above and south of the Little Headwall, and on the SE aspects of the Lion Head ridge. All of this activity came about as a result of the increased wind speeds yesterday afternoon. Another result of these winds was the refilling of the exposed fracture line in the Lip and Headwall and the disappearance of exposed surface in the left side of the Headwall. Today's stability concerns are directly related to the slabs that were brought in with yesterday's winds. We do not expect any weather that would indicate an increase in natural avalanche activity, but the potential for human triggered avalanches is present on existing slabs. The area of greatest concern is the greater Lip and Headwall area. As mentioned, an older fracture here has been mostly reloaded. This slide ran on a hard crust layer, which can act as a slippery bed surface for future slides. With the very cold temperatures, elastic energy will keep the slabs snappy and reactive. In Right Gully, previous avalanches had left nothing but a crust bed surface for yesterday's new loading to fall onto. Careful route selection can help you avoid slabs that have been able to build here, but expect any new snow to be quite touchy. The upper start zone of Left Gully has seen some scouring, but this snow has only been moved a bit farther down into the gully. With it's proximity to an area rated at Considerable and recent avalanche activity on similar aspects, Left Gully is at the upper end of the Moderate Rating. Hillman's Highway has good amount of terrain that would not fall into the Moderate rating, however the start zones have been loaded here as well. Also, there has been a lot of natural activity on slopes nearby Hillman's, so that is another indicator of unstable slabs. Huntington Ravine also has a lot of new snow loaded into its upper start zones. In particular, South, Odell, and Pinnacle are at the upper end of the Moderate rating based on the amount of new loading there. Damnation and North Gullies do have isolated pockets of instability to watch out for, so do not be complacent simply because of their Low rating.

Tonight we have another winter storm on its way. The National Weather Service has issued a Heavy Snow Warning for the entire state of New Hampshire. In addition to a lot of new snow on Saturday, this storm is expected to bring high wind speeds on Sunday. With the amount of snow available for transport above treeline and the incoming snow and winds, you can expect elevated avalanche danger for the weekend. A High rating for Saturday and Sunday is certainly possible. We'll be posting an update tonight on the Weekend Update section of our website, www.tuckerman.org.

The Lion Head Winter Route is located outside of our forecast area, but does have potential to produce avalanche activity as anchors become covered and the upper snowfields increase in size. We are currently at that point so it’s important to make your own avalanche stability assessments and use safe travel techniques when considering this route. In addition remember there is more sizeable avalanche terrain and potential for avalanche activity very close to the marked path so realize that if there is avalanche danger on the trail it is likely worse if you get off route. With all this said the Lion Head Winter Route mitigates avalanche risk as much as possible, but does not eliminate it, although it usually offers the safest open path alternative in the Lion Head area to the alpine zone.

If you plan on being in steep terrain, make sure you have crampons, an ice axe and the ability to self arrest. The icy surface that is around the mountain provides the potential for long sliding falls, even with a blanket of new snow. This includes the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with new snow and great backcountry conditions