Every year it seems like the month of March holds true to the saying and comes "in like a lion." This year is no different. We are in the early stages of what we expect to be a major avalanche cycle. Snowfall is expected to be heavy through the morning hours with somewhere between 6-12" (15-30cm) of snow forecasted for this area. It is likely that the summit will be on the lower end of local accumulations due to the most moisture-rich air being located below the 4000' (1227m) level. Nonetheless we've already picked up about 4" (10cm) below the ravines and nothing suggests we'll see snow shutdown anytime soon. Winds above the ravines are currently blowing snow out of the SSE and averaging 55mph (89kph). We expect a brief lull in the winds during the midday hours but the majority of the day will see speeds up to 60mph (97kph) with higher gusts. In addition these winds will wrapping around to the NW creating significant loading on all aspects. Another key piece of info is that during the last week of February the summit wind speeds had daily averages of 38mph or lower but they picked up 9.3" (23.6cm) of new snow. This tells me that as we reach the upper end of the day's forecasted wind speeds we will have more snow available for transport than what this storm delivers.

This morning as we drove up to Hermit Lake on snowmobiles we watched 20+ mini avalanches occur on small slopes adjacent to the trail. They might only be harmful to a mouse but they serve as an obvious red flag of the day's stability. Snow that has fallen so far is light (5% density) and composed of some intersting crystals such as pronounced capped columns. As the system's low moves up the coast it will pull in warmer air that will deliver snow of a slightly higher density. This "upside-down" layering of the snowpack is always a red flag. This storm's snow is falling on a wide variety of surfaces from icy rain crust to newer soft windslab. During the month of February we watched unusual areas see repeated avalanche activity and usual suspects such as Hilman's Highway run bigger than we've ever seen before. February may have ended with snowfall totals just below average for the summit but we have more snow on the ground and more fully developed avalanche paths than we've had in a LONG time. As you venture out into the mountains today keep this in mind and remember that the areas for which we forecast are not the only locations capable of producing an avalanche.

The Lion Head Winter Route is not one of our forecast areas but does have potential to produce avalanches as anchors become covered and the snowfields increase in size. We are currently at that point so it’s important to make your own avalanche stability assessments and use safe travel techniques when following this route. Straying from the marked path quickly puts you into more significant avalanche terrain. The Lion Head Winter Route was designed to mitigate avalanche risk as much as possible, but does not eliminate it. It usually offers the safest direct line up the east side of Mt. Washington.

If you plan on being in steep terrain, make sure you have crampons, an ice axe and the ability to self arrest. This includes the Lion Head Winter Route. The Sherburne Ski Trail is open with new snow and good coverage.