I've been hunting for a silver lining to perk up today's advisory and the only thing I came up with is that it will be over by tomorrow. There is plenty of rain in the forecast and it will creep all the way up to the higher summits. We can expect 1-2" (2.5 to 5 cm) of rain today with increasing winds that may be gusting to 100 mph (161 kph) on the Summit by late in the day. I think today's weather will cause a decent avalanche cycle on the mountain. The rain will be falling on cold wind slabs that are sitting on an icy crust. Most of the wind slab in the Ravines formed last Thursday which marks our last avalanche cycle. Winds on Thursday decreased rapidly which brought the avalanche cycle to an abrupt end. Wind slabs left over from this event are variable in depth, size and density and they can be found in just about every forecast area. We had been feeling comfortable with the stability of these slabs but today's weather changes this dramatically. As rain falls through the day it will be adding load to wind slabs while breaking down bonds in the snow grains that makes them strong. As this happens the tensile strength of the slabs will decrease and water will eventually percolate down to the icy crust. When it hits this I think it will begin traveling down hill under the wind slabs which will deteriorate the bonds they have developed with the ice crust. The result will likely be a bunch of avalanche activity. There are wind slabs that are older than the ones described above, especially in the Lip and Sluice. Today's forecasted rain amounts could result in avalanches stepping down into these older slabs. If this happens we could have some big runners. If the pouring rain hadn't stopped you from venturing into the Ravines today, hopefully the likelihood of avalanche activity will.

Mountain travel is going to be grim today. As the snowpack becomes saturated you can expect miserable post hole conditions. Streams will be on the rise and there could be a period when crossing them is difficult or impossible, especially late in the day. As this mess pulls away colder air will return allowing any lingering moisture to fall as snow. A favorable upslope flow will develop and snow may be falling through the day tomorrow in the mountains. This may result in a whole new set of snow stability concerns this week.

The Lion Head Winter Route is open. It is a steep route and an ice axe and crampons are recommended for safe travel. The John Sherburne Ski Trail will be losing snow before it locks up into a frozen mass tomorrow. Sorry.