8:32 a.m., Sunday, November 10, 2002

   This is an early season GENERAL ADVISORY. Use of the 5 scale avalanche
   rating system will begin when conditions warrant. Until then new
   advisories will be issued as needed. We are getting very close to
   using the U.S. 5 scale danger rating, BUT REALIZE AVALANCHES MAY OCCUR
   EVEN THOUGH WE ARE STILL ISSUING 'GENERAL ADVISORIES' DUE TO AN
   ISOLATED HAZARD. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or
   recreate on it's large enough to avalanche. Approach early season
   snowfields with skepticism and be conservative while on them, near
   them, or in their runout zones. AS ALWAYS, THIS BULLETIN 






   IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE
   TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability
   assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading
   mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   Be aware of FALLING ICE over the next few days as rapid warming and
   rain comes into the region. Expect ice to detatch from warming rock
   particularly in thin areas. Ice climbing should become more hazardous
   than usual with temperatures far above freezing and rain in the
   forecast. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so
   pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have
   a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice
   comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the
   event of ice fall. Be ice smart.

   Rain showers are expected from Sunday into the middle of the week as
   multiple fronts carring moisture move through the area. This should
   have an impact on snowpack stability, but it depends on how much
   precipitation we receive each day and its intensity over time. The
   area is not expected to pick up a lot of precipitation today at the
   higher elevations, but some light showers can be anticipated. However,
   tomorrow after dawn rain should pick up steadily and be heavy at times
   all the way to the summit of Mount Washington with over an inch
   expected. This should trigger the 'U.S. 5 Scale Danger Rating' system
   so look for a new bulletin tomorrow morning. It should be a miserable
   day in the mountains and those venturing into the mountains for fun
   should get their....well you get the picture. Rain brings weight,
   melts bonds as it brings heat into the snowpack, and lubricates
   impermeable layers like ice lens. Although initially warm rain will
   continue settling the snowpack, if it occurs to quickly this
   stabilizing factor can go the other way and bring instability. By
   changing too quickly the physical properties of the snowpack will have
   trouble reacting to this rapid change. Simply put, new stresses
   overcoming the existing strength of the snowpack. Rain is such a
   strong factor influencing avalanche activity that you should really
   assess what you're doing there at all. As the saying goes, if it rains
   in avalanche terrain it's time to go home.

   So..., make your own assessment of changing snow conditions through
   the day and be most concerned about amounts of rain and how hard it
   comes down over a given time. Particularly where snow loaded on ice
   and grass over the past couple of weeks on the Headwall and Bowl of
   Tuckerman and gullies of Huntington. These areas as well as exposed
   ice are the most likely areas for avalanche activity. Ice that
   develops rapidly each fall in both Ravines and often act as an
   excellent sliding layer for avalanches to occur.

   Be aware that a small slab or sluff can be very dangerous. This is
   particularly true in the steep gullies and slopes of Tuckerman and
   Huntington Ravines for early season ice climbers. As a climber picks
   their way through a route they will usually cross small pockets of
   snow. Often this snow has deposited over blue ice, making for a poor
   bond at the interface. Consider this ahead of time and place
   protection before crossing suspect slopes. It doesn't take much snow
   to knock you off your feet and depending how high you are this could
   be a considerable problem.

   Pull out your beacon and practice, ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!!
   Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow
   stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the
   avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website,
   csac.org.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This General Avalanche Bulletin will be updated as needed.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest