6:43 a.m., Monday, November 11, 2002

   Happy Veteran's Day! This is the first 5 scale bulletin of the season.
   We will likely go back and forth between General Advisories and 5
   scale ratings until we need to go to a daily bulletin. If a 5 scale
   bulletin is issued it expires at midnight on the day of issue and you
   can expect another bulletin the following morning. When a General
   Advisory is posted another bulletin may or may not be issued the
   following day depending on conditions. Climbers heading into
   Huntington should check the avalanche bulletin before leaving Pinkham
   Notch or Hermit Lake each morning. Until 






   the Harvard Cabin opens on December 1st the avalanche bulletin will
   not be posted there due to no campers being there overnight.

   Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger
   today. Natural avalanches are POSSIBLE and human triggered avalanches
   are PROBABLE on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Be
   increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

   Over the past 4 days temperatures have been above freezing in
   avalanche start zones and their associated runouts. Slopes have been
   settling very well and as of yesterday morning we had lost 30% of our
   cover at the snow stake plot. We would be in good shape if we were hit
   with a cold front freezing the existing snowpack solid, but we're in
   for a bit of Mother Nature's spring rain first. The majority of
   moisture preceding the front, heading our way, is currently entering
   southern New York State and will be here early this afternoon.
   However, intermittent showers that are leading the bulk of the
   precipitation brought light rain to the summit a few hours ago. This
   should persist until the center of the zone hits later today.
   THUNDERSTORMS are a possibility with the front pushing moisture
   through the area this afternoon, so expect some periods of heavy rain.
   Temperatures will begin returning to seasonal norms tonight and we may
   even get a shot of brief frozen precipitation on the higher summits.

   So why the considerable rating? Over the past three days the snowpack
   has become saturated with freewater from melting frozen crystals in
   the snowpack, as well as light rain over the past 12 hours. Warm
   temperatures have gone all the way to the summit of Mt. Washington
   which has generated some considerable running water from melt off.
   This running water flows under the snow and ice and may blow out areas
   when it can no longer handle the pressure from the underlying volume.
   When rain gets going today it will add both stress to an already
   supersaturated snowpack and increase the water flow in channels
   beneath the snow and ice. Areas which have steep topography above will
   obviously have more running water than those that stand alone. So
   areas on the right side of the Bowl and the Lip in Tuckerman will have
   a greter possibility of wet avalanche activity than Left Gully. This
   is due to the volume of running water coming down from the summit cone
   effecting the channels on the Lip. Conversely, Left gully has a flat
   plataeu above it with very little water running into the start zone.
   Although all areas have 'Considerable' danger, but I'd put my money on
   the Center Bowl towards the Lip for the most likely area for activity
   today. You can expect the avalanche danger to rise through the day
   culminating with the heaviest rain this afternoon.

   Once again it should be a miserable day in the mountains and those
   venturing into the mountains for fun should get their heads....well
   you get the picture. Rain is such a strong factor influencing
   avalanche activity that you should really assess what you're doing
   there at all. As the saying goes, if it rains in avalanche terrain
   it's time to go home.

   Be aware of FALLING ICE. Expect ice to detatch from warming rock
   particularly in thin areas. Ice climbing should be much more hazardous
   than usual with temperatures far above freezing and heavy rain today.
   Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay
   attention to where you are and don't linger under potential icefall.

   Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's
   large enough to avalanche. Approach early season snowfields with
   skepticism and be conservative while on them, near them, or in their
   runout zones. AS ALWAYS, THIS BULLETIN IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU
   MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along
   with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel
   techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the
   snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   Pull out your beacon and practice, ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!!
   Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow
   stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the
   avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website,
   csac.org.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This Avalanche Bulletin will expire today at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest