6:31 a.m., Tuesday, November 12, 2002

   THIS IS AN EARLY SEASON 'GENERAL ADVISORY'. We will likely go back and
   forth between General Advisories and 5 scale ratings until we need to
   go to a daily bulletin. If a 5 scale bulletin is issued it expires at
   midnight on the day of issue and you can expect another bulletin the
   following morning. When a General Advisory is posted another bulletin
   may or may not be issued the following day depending on conditions.
   Climbers heading into Huntington should check the avalanche bulletin
   before leaving Pinkham Notch or Hermit Lake each morning. Until the
   Harvard Cabin opens on December






   1st the avalanche bulletin will not be posted there due to no campers
   being there overnight.

   On Sunday, three weather models used by the National Weather Service
   conflicted with one another on how Monday would play out. By late
   Sunday it all came together and the storm that brought so much
   devastation to Southern States played out like clock work here in the
   Mount Washington Valley. As of midnight the summit received 1.12
   inches of rain in the preceding 24 hours, the heaviest falling around
   3:00 pm. Once it clears up we will see how much snow loss occured and
   if any avalanche activity resulted from the warm temperatures and
   heavy rain. After 4 days of rapid settling culminating with over an
   inch of rain, I believe that if avalanche activity was to occur,
   Monday would of been the day. For these reasons a Considerable rating
   was issued for Veterans Day.

   The snowpack should continue draining today before getting hit on and
   off with showers all the way into next weekend! Expect some breaks
   here and there through the week, but it appears the word for the week
   will be 'rain'. After taking on over an inch of rain I think the
   snowpack should handle showers ok on and off through the week.
   However, as always be very conservative during steady, prolonged, or
   heavy rain. As discussed earlier this week, rain is such a strong
   factor influencing avalanche activity that you should really assess
   what you're doing there at all. As the saying goes, if it rains in
   avalanche terrain it's time to go home. One factor we will watch
   through the week is freezing temperatures on the higher summits. As
   the Valley gets shower activity we may get some frozen precipitation
   or snow up high which may generate some isolated areas of instability.
   Depending on when exactly snow begins, relative to temperature, will
   make an enormous difference. If snow begins after freezing
   temperatures it may fall on a hard icy surface making for a poor bond
   at the interface. But if snow begins before the old surface has a
   change to freeze a better bond is likely to occur. So constantly
   evaluate snowpack stability, never become complacent.

   Be aware of FALLING ICE. Expect ice to detatch from warming rock
   particularly in thin areas. Ice climbing should be much more hazardous
   than usual with temperatures above freezing and rain forecasted for
   the week. Many visitors have been injured and killed by falling ice so
   pay attention to where you are and don't linger under potential
   icefall.

   Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's
   large enough to avalanche. AS ALWAYS, THIS BULLETIN IS ONE MORE TOOL
   TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be
   used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe
   travel techniques, skill in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack,
   and avalanche rescue.

   Pull out your beacon and practice, ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!!
   Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow
   stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the
   avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website,
   csac.org.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This General Advisory will be updated as needed.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest