5:50 a.m., Friday, November 15, 2002

   THIS IS AN EARLY SEASON 'GENERAL ADVISORY'. We will likely go back and
   forth between General Advisories and 5 scale ratings until we need to
   go to a daily bulletin. If a 5 scale bulletin is issued it expires at
   midnight on the day of issue and you can expect another bulletin the
   following morning. When a General Advisory is posted another bulletin
   may or may not be issued the following day depending on conditions.
   Climbers heading into Huntington should check the avalanche bulletin
   before leaving Pinkham Notch or Hermit Lake each morning. Until the
   Harvard Cabin opens on December






   1st the avalanche bulletin will not be posted there due to no campers
   being there overnight.

   Well another interesting weather weekend is quickly approaching.
   Expect some precipitation through the day today starting as snow
   probably changing to mixed and then rain over most areas. A cold air
   mass will move over the region tomorrow before a significant amount of
   moisture moves up from the South. This STORM should be moving into the
   northern half of New Hampshire by late in the afternoon on Saturday
   and "should" bring snow to the mountains all night and through Sunday.
   Moisture is certain, but timing will be critical with temperatures if
   we will receive a classic 'wintery mix' or all snow for the higher
   mountains. At this time it appears that the high mountains will remain
   below freezing which should keep precipitation in the form of snow. As
   the front pushes through temperatures should increase so expect higher
   density snow to load in over ligher snow from earilier in the storm.
   It also seems that significant loading winds will wrap around later in
   the storm to load lee areas in the Ravines more heavily than the
   earlier precipitation. Loading should continue into the Monday as we
   settle back into our prevailing wind patterns from the NW and W. But
   we'll talk more about that in future bulletins. So expect an
   increasing avalanche danger the weekend beginning in the afternoon on
   Saturday. If there is a significant change with the way the Storm is
   expected to play out you may see a bulletin on Saturday, but more than
   likily the next bulletin will be Sunday morning.

   SO.. EXPECT AN INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
   WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. Watch the weather closely over the
   next few days as temperatures and precipitation will change
   practically every hour. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to
   ski or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche. AS ALWAYS, THIS
   BULLETIN IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN
   AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow
   stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in
   mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   Be aware of FALLING ICE. Although we lost just about all the ice in
   the Ravines over the past week watch for new ice forming and then
   coming off as temperatures rise. Many visitors have been injured and
   killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are and don't
   linger under potential icefall.

   Pull out your beacon and practice, ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!!
   Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow
   stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the
   avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website,
   csac.org.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This General Advisory will be updated as needed.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest