7:36 a.m., Sunday, November 17, 2002

   A U.S. 5 SCALE DANGER RATING AVALANCHE BULLETIN IS ISSUED FOR TODAY. A
   WINTER STORM WARNING POSTED BY THE NWS STANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. We
   will likely go back and forth between General Advisories and 5 scale
   ratings until we need to go to a daily bulletin. If a 5 scale bulletin
   is issued it expires at midnight on the day of issue and you can
   expect another bulletin the following morning. When a General Advisory
   is posted another bulletin may or may not be issued the following day
   depending on conditions. Climbers heading into Huntington should check
   the avalanche bulletin before leaving Pinkham Notch or Hermit Lake
   each morning. Until the Harvard Cabin opens on December 1st the
   avalanche bulletin will not be posted there due to no campers being
   there overnight.

   TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINE HAVE CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER
   TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER THROUGH THE DAY INTO
   TOMORROW. 8 inches of snow or more are expected for the mountains.
   This should be intermittently combined with a 'wintery mix' on and off
   until tomorrow. Areas of most concern are those that already have
   significant existing snowfields before this storm. These pockets offer
   new snow a bed surface to avalanche on compared to brush or rock
   dominated areas. The largest areas are still in Tuckerman Ravine. Left
   Gully, the Chute, and areas North towards the Sluice do have sizeable
   snowfields. Isolated patches in the Huntington Gullies also offer good
   potential bed surfaces. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to
   ski or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche. AS ALWAYS, THIS
   BULLETIN IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN
   AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow
   stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in
   mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   Once again the NWS has done a good job predicting the outcome of this
   weather maker with some minor exceptions. The storm was initially
   expected to track more inland bringing heavier amounts to the
   mountains, but we'll still get our share. Radar shows moisture amounts
   dropping off at the northern VT-NH border with the brunt of
   precipitation falling in southern NH and up the coast towards the
   Maritimes. Snow started on the summit between 10 and 11 pm last night
   with shifting winds. Most of this storm will track across the
   avalanche forecast area from the ESE through the S. This will load
   northerly aspects and cross load others, but shouldn't bring
   significant loading until winds shift from the W later in the storm.
   The NWS forecast calls for heavy icing between .25 and .5 inches in
   the lowlands and expect a change over to freezing rain for all areas
   by later this morning. However at 7am the summit temperature was 19
   degrees F so I think avalanche start zones will receive more snow and
   sleet compared to freezing rain than the forecast expects. Once again
   temperatures will be the key decision maker today and tonight. As the
   storm begins to move out to the NE expect shifting winds to become
   westerly and intensify late Sunday evening into Monday. This will be
   preceded with a change back to snow from the forecasted wintery mix.
   Loading into the Ravines will increase and should bring significant
   snow into lee areas through Monday.

   Pull out your beacon and practice, ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!!
   Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow
   stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the
   avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website,
   csac.org.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This Avalanche Bulletin expires at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest