6:53 a.m., Thursday, December 5, 2002 TUCKERMAN RAVINE CURRENTLY HAS LOW, MODERATE, AND CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER. The Little Headwall and the Lower Snowfields have LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal caution is advised. Hillmans Highway and Left Gully have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other areas in Tuckerman have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. HUNTINGTON RAVINE HAS MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Use caution in steeper terrain. The summit received no new snow over the 24 hours preceding Midnight, due to beautiful clear blue skies. Some light snow may move into the area tonight, but is not forecasted to bring much accumulation. Cold temperatures have not allowed the snowpack to consolidate and settle very much over the past 24 hours because of temperatures between -2 and -13 below zero on the summit. As discussed on Tuesdays bulletin hard slabs are sitting over lighter density slabs and unconsolidated snow in many areas especially those in strong lee areas of NW through W winds, namely E and SE facing aspects. An example of these aspects is the Sluice, the Lip, and the Headwall area of Tuckerman. These conditions were found yesterday down in lower elevation E aspects in the trees so keep your eyes peeled for instability in places that are not commonly problematic. I went above treeline yesterday to check on the Lion Head winter route and found unstable slabs in areas protected from high winds. Many areas showed "1 finger" (hardness) slabs over "fist" soft slabs and unconsolidated snow. Although areas that were rated as High yesterday have dropped to Considerable, or Considerable to Moderate, that doesn't mean you should just go pound the slopes. Realize they have just moved out of the High or Considerable rating so they should be on the upper range of the current postings. Travel can be quite tricky right now so know your safe travel rules and perform multiple snow stability tests to accurately reflect changing conditions from area to area. Watch for new bulletins discussing any change in the daily rating. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski, climb, or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche. THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL BELOW TREELINE HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN FOR THE WINTER DUE TO THE STEEP SNOWFIELD TRAVERSE NEAR TREELINE. THE SUMMER TRAIL AREA WILL AVALANCHE WITH ENOUGH NEW LOADING THROUGH THE WINTER. THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. IT LEAVES FROM THE HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND CHALLENGING, CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL. THE ROUTE CURRENTLY HAS SOFT UNCONSOLIDATED SNOW THAT SEEMS LIKE GOOD COVERAGE, BUT IT CAN BE A BIT DECEPTIVE. REFRAIN FROM GLISSADING FOR A WHILE DUE TO ROOTS, TREES, AND ROCKS TRYING TO TAKE A BITE OUT OF YOU JUST BELOW THE SURFACE. We have been looking at some of the mistakes made during the avalanche accidents over the weekend each day here in the bulletin. The intent is that we can all learn from these events to prevent future accidents and be better prepared as backcountry users in avalanche terrain. Tuesday we discussed the potential misunderstanding of the 5 scale avalanche danger rating system and yesterday a bit about avalanche gear. Some other items that jumped out at me were the lack of avalanche training and breaking the rules of safe travel in avalanche terrain. The lack of avalanche training or just enough to bring over confidence is a constant problem and theme in avalanche accidents around the world. "Well he had 20 years of experience" is a common statement heard after avalanche accidents. But, 20 years experience doing what? Climbing. Skiing. Yes maybe you're good at those things, but have you taken the time to learn more about the medium you're traveling through? Truly learned. One slide show 10 years ago is no where close to what you should have under your belt. Take the bull by the horns and understand what makes it tick. A good course will discuss, elements needed for avalanche activity, stability assessment, rescue, understanding avalanche advisories, and the rules of safe travel in avalanche terrain. Even a good avalanche book is a great place to start. All these things will bring good judgment and decision making over time. You can't make good decisions if you haven't been educated. Make educated decisions not those made through guess work or ignorance. Remember the unstable slope doesn't care if you call yourself an expert. All it's thinking is " oh no more load!.. I caaannnn'tt ttakkeee it muccchh morrrre, CRACK!" AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. Pull out your beacon, probe, and shovel and practice, pracTICE!, PRACTICE!!, PRACTICE!!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!! Sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, csac.org. PLEASE REMEMBER: o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this includes wind transported snow. o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out. o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers: AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters. o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight. Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger USDA Forest Service White Mountain National Forest