7:27 a.m., Friday, December 6, 2002 TUCKERMAN RAVINE CURRENTLY HAS LOW, MODERATE, AND CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER. The Little Headwall and the Lower Snowfields have LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal caution is advised. Hillmans Highway and Left Gully have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other areas in Tuckerman have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. HUNTINGTON RAVINE HAS MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Use caution in steeper terrain. The summit received under an inch of new snow since 10 pm last night. Once again we've had light snow densities at 5% with temperatures in the single digits F. From 10pm into the wee morning hours snowfall was associated with very light winds from the West in the 12-18 mph range and slowly increased into the mid twenties as of 5 am. Winds are forecasted to increase through the day and are expected near 50 mph by sunset. Snow showers are anticipated through the morning hours with partial clearing late in the day. According to the NWS forecast it doesn't appear that we will receive a lot of moisture between now and this evening, however with densities hovering around 5% this can add up to several fluffy inches. Low density snow will be more easily transported than our traditionally heavier crystal types so expect that loading has occurred through the predawn hours most dominantly on E facing aspects, but anticipate the cross loading of others. Once again we are heading toward that inverted snowpack we have seen on and off over the past couple of weeks. Not as a rule, but generally speaking new slabs usually become "harder" with increased densities as winds increase, which I expect to occur today. As winds increase slowly a 'protective' slab builds over lighter density slabs and loose unconsolidated snow underneath keeping higher winds from blowing it away. As slabs build, and increase load on a slope, this initial loose snow may act as the major factor and weak layer resulting in slope failure. Anticipate a scenario similar to this playing out today. Obviously we haven't seen much snow since yesterday, but it is enough to be a potential weak layer for snow showers this morning with increasing winds. We will have to watch how much snow actually falls, with what densities, to better understand how significant these problems will become during the daylight hours today. Another concern, particularly on Eastern aspects where most instability is currently located, is a small new snow avalanche stepping down into weak layers from Tuesdays/Wednesdays loading. This may cause a larger slab avalanche on a slope that appears fairly innocuous. An avalanche is usually the greatest load a slope will see and even a very small moving slab will generate tons of force on weak layers in the underlying snowpack. As discussed yesterday travel can be quite tricky right now so know your safe travel rules and perform multiple snow stability tests to accurately reflect changing conditions from area to area. High pressure should produce decent weather tomorrow, but then artic air should move in from Canada on Sunday bringing with it periods of snow showers. Stay tuned. THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL BELOW TREELINE HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN FOR THE WINTER DUE TO THE STEEP SNOWFIELD TRAVERSE NEAR TREELINE. THE SUMMER TRAIL AREA WILL AVALANCHE WITH ENOUGH NEW LOADING THROUGH THE WINTER. THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. IT LEAVES FROM THE HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND CHALLENGING, CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL. THE ROUTE CURRENTLY HAS SOFT UNCONSOLIDATED SNOW THAT SEEMS LIKE GOOD COVERAGE, BUT IT CAN BE A BIT DECEPTIVE. REFRAIN FROM GLISSADING FOR A WHILE DUE TO ROOTS, TREES, AND ROCKS TRYING TO TAKE A BITE OUT OF YOU JUST BELOW THE SURFACE. We have been looking at some of the mistakes made during the avalanche accidents over the weekend each day here in the bulletin. The intent is that we can all learn from these events to prevent future accidents and be better prepared as backcountry users in avalanche terrain. This week we discussed the potential misunderstanding of the 5 scale avalanche danger rating system, avalanche safety gear, and the lack of avalanche training. This leaves what it all comes down to in the end, the rules of safe travel in avalanche terrain. This is where the rubber meets the road. If you learn about nothing else in the avalanche world, learn how to travel safely in avalanche terrain. You can do stability tests until your blue in the face, you can update your beacon each year with the latest tech advances, and you can wear an avalanche air bag and an Avalung (which are all good things by the way). But if you and your buddy decide to lay down the greatest set of figure 8's ever down a long gully and jump in together all the stability teats and gear are wasted in times of instability. Depend on good decision making not the latest gizmos. Remember your safety gear is there as the last ditch attempt to save your life, but it's when everything else has gone wrong. Often your safety gear will save your life, but there is also a good chance that you'll be killed by trauma. DON'T RELY ON YOUR GEAR, RELY ON YOUR BRAIN AND THE EDUCATED INFORMED DECISIONS YOU MAKE. Two quick general rules 1. Always travel one at a time in suspect terrain linking islands of safety as you move. And 2. Never travel over or under your partner without his or her permission. We'll wrap up last weekends incidents tomorrow with a few closing thoughts. Have a safe weekend. AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. Pull out your beacon, probe, and shovel and practice, pracTICE!, PRACTICE!!, PRACTICE!!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!! Sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, csac.org. PLEASE REMEMBER: o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this includes wind transported snow. o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out. o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers: AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters. o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight. Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger USDA Forest Service White Mountain National Forest