8:44 a.m., Sunday, December 8, 2002 TUCKERMAN RAVINE CURRENTLY HAS LOW AND MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER. The Little Headwall and the Lower Snowfields have LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal caution is advised. All other areas in Tuckerman have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Use caution in steeper terrain. HUNTINGTON RAVINE HAS LOW AND MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER. Central and South gullies have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. All other gullies in Huntington have LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal caution is advised. These pockets DO exist so put your avalanche skills to work in the Ravine. Snow showers are forecasted through the morning hours with W and NW winds which are currently at 65 mph. This may bring a bit of snow into strong lee areas, but the forecast isn't expecting much precipitation. Watch snowfall amounts and anticipate the possiblility of an increasing avalanche danger and change your plans accordingly. An arctic cold front is moving in today, dropping the temperature to perhaps -15 degrees F with high winds tonight. Be prepared with the right gear for this exteme weather change. Yesterday snow was blowing over the ridgetops lightly loading very strong lee pockets against the backdrop of blue skies. It exemplified beauty in the mountains, although bringing an increased danger due to snow loading. Look out for small pockets with new slab that are sheltered from W and NW winds. You won't find many new snow locations from yesterday's plumes, but they are out there. The most significant weak layer we found on E and SE facing aspects yesterday was about 1 to 1.5cm layer of grapel approximately 45 cm deep. We were finding quality 1-easy to moderate shears between layers of hard slab. A few things are important to keep in mind about this situation. Grapel with high winds will often pool in lee areas and will not be uniformally distributed. Some areas may have no grapel layers while certain pockets may have heavy deposits. This variability should be kept in mind. Particularly in relation to potential weaker trigger points when a slope might be skied more than once. One set of ski tracks doesn't mean the slope is OK. However, we found the tensile strength of the hard slab above this weak layer to be quite strong. This strength will be higher on smaller slopes with multiple anchor points still helping hold slabs in place. This 'bridging' over weak layers will becomes less of a stabilizing factor as you move onto larger open slopes such as the center bowl of Tuckerman. THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL BELOW TREELINE HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN FOR THE WINTER DUE TO THE STEEP SNOWFIELD TRAVERSE NEAR TREELINE. THE SUMMER TRAIL AREA WILL AVALANCHE WITH ENOUGH NEW LOADING THROUGH THE WINTER. THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. IT LEAVES FROM THE HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND CHALLENGING, CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL. On the way out of the Ravine yesterday we came across 4 people from Quebec heading in. 3 were on skis one and one was snowboarding. They all had beacons, probes, and shovels. They had taken avalanche courses through the Canadian Avalanche Association which offer some of the best courses in the world. And they were heading up to dig snow pits. AWESOME! I hate to say it, but this may be the most prepared group I have encountered in a long time. They seemed excited about their sport as well as avoiding avalanches. Lets follow their example and have fun digging and learning. I know some people who started learning about snow because they were avid backcoutry skiers. Now it seems they ski just to go dig snowpits! It really is fun learning about snowpack instability. Sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, csac.org. AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue. PLEASE REMEMBER: o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this includes wind transported snow. o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out. o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers: AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters. o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight. Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger USDA Forest Service White Mountain National Forest