8:06 a.m., Wednesday, December 11, 2002

   TUCKERMAN RAVINE CURRENTLY HAS LOW, MODERATE, and CONSIDERABLE
   AVALANCHE DANGER. The Little Headwall, the Lower Snowfields, and
   Hillmans Highway have LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are
   very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely EXCEPT IN
   ISOLATED POCKETS on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal
   caution is advised. Left Gully has MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural
   avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
   Use caution in steeper terrain. All other areas have CONSIDERABLE
   avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are POSSIBLE and human triggered
   avalanches are PROBABLE. Be increasingly cautious in steep terrain.

   HUNTINGTON RAVINE HAS LOW AVALANCHE DANGER. Natural avalanches are
   very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in
   isolated pockets on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal
   caution is advised. These pockets DO exist so put your avalanche
   skills to work in the Ravine. Central and South are just 2 examples of
   where you might find this isolated pockets.

   Once again the summit had no new precipitation in the past 24 hours
   and currently sits at 23 degrees F. We are at 30 degrees F, down at
   3800 ft, here at Hermit Lake. Temperatures should rise a bit through
   the day before precipitataion moves in after dark. Majority of this
   weather maker will be missing us, but we are on the fringes so 1-3
   inches is forecasted by late morning. This moisture is tracking in
   from the SW in the 30-50 mph range so we may get some loading
   predominantly on NE and E facing aspects, but anticipate the cross
   loading of others. There is a possibility with the warmer air
   associated with this storm that we might get some RAIN out of this at
   elevations below the higher summits. This means the traditional start
   zones. It could be interesting so watch the weather closely. If it
   does begin to rain we could could see some of the current unstable
   slabs rumble at 60-80 mph down the slope. In other words "avalanche
   activity"! When new dry unstable slabs are hit with liquid
   precipitation we usually see avalanches occur. Of course there is not
   much moisture (.1-.35 H2O) forecasted with tonights weather so this
   discussion is a worst case scenario, but worth keeping in mind. If
   this scenario comes true we may see that buried grapel layer become a
   problem. If new precipitation causes an avalanche on a near surface
   weak layer it may step down to this layer and rip it out as well. We
   were finding quality 1-easy to moderate shears on this grapel between
   layers of hard slab. A few things are important to keep in mind about
   this situation. Grapel with high winds will often pool in lee areas
   and will not be uniformly distributed. Some areas may have no grapel
   layers while certain pockets may have heavy deposits. This variability
   should be kept in mind. However, we found the tensile strength of the
   hard slab above this weak layer to be quite strong. This strength will
   be higher on smaller slopes with multiple anchor points still helping
   hold slabs in place. This 'bridging' over weak layers will becomes
   less of a stabilizing factor as you move onto larger open slopes such
   as the center bowl of Tuckerman. Another shot of moisture is expected
   over the weekend. Currently it appears to be similar in precipitation
   amounts that is forecasted for tonight. We'll keep an eye on it and
   discuss it later in the week.

   THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL BELOW TREELINE HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN FOR THE
   WINTER DUE TO THE STEEP SNOWFIELD TRAVERSE NEAR TREELINE. THE SUMMER
   TRAIL AREA WILL AVALANCHE WITH ENOUGH NEW LOADING THROUGH THE WINTER.
   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. IT LEAVES FROM THE HUNTINGTON
   FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN RAVINE TRAIL
   AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND CHALLENGING, CRAMPONS,
   AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR
   SAFE TRAVEL.

   THE BEST HOLIDAY GIFT YOU CAN GET YOUR BACKCOUNTRY LOVED ONE TO
   EXPRESS CARING AND CONCERN IS THE AVALANCHE BEACON, PROBE, AND SHOVEL.
   TOO EXPENSIVE? THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SPLIT THE GIFT WITH
   ANOTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND. YOU'LL NEVER REGRET GIVING IT, ONLY REGRET
   NOT GIVING IT.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest