9:09 a.m., Saturday, December 14, 2002

   TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINES HAVE CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER.
   Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are
   probable on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Be
   increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

   Another storm is upon us! The summit reported 2 inches (5 cm) of snow
   this morning which began around 2am. We received 3 inches (8 cm) here
   at Hermit Lake with between 12% and 13% water content (density).
   Precipitation is expected to continue through the day till
   approximately midnight. In the higher elevations above treeline snow
   should prevail. However, expect the possibility of freezing rain or
   rain in the gullies, snowfields, and start zones of both ravines.
   Watch the timing of this very closely. If we don't get this
   precipitation change till late it will be effecting the stability of 6
   or more new inches. This would be more dangerous than this occuring
   this morning with only 3 inches (8 cm) of new snowfall. This change
   over seems to be happening with frozen pellets and heavily rimed
   crystals, but then it goes back to snow again. As this warm pocket of
   air moves through colder air is following right behind which will
   change any liquid or frozen precipitation back to snow. Currently wind
   is from the SE at 40-45 mph (65-70 kph), but should be backing around
   through the E, NE, and eventually N later today. This will cross load
   some areas, but significant loading should begin when we get northerly
   winds. Then later in the day as the storm raps around winds should
   increase from the NW. This will cause the traditional loading of lee
   slopes of our prevailing winds, namely E, SE, and S facing aspects.
   Above treeline elevations are expected to stay as snow through the
   weather event which means there should be ideal conditions for heavy
   loading once winds shift. S through E aspects baked in the sun through
   the day yesterday and then refroze culminating in a classic sun crust.
   The majority of the new loading over the next 12-24 hours will be
   deposited on top of this crust. Anticipate poor bonding to this layer.
   So.. expect the avalanche danger to rise through the day. I don't
   think we are quite at Considerable yet at 8:00 am, but we will be
   quite soon. As snowfall densities increase and winds shift expect the
   instability to rise. If the weather forecast becomes reality EXPECT
   THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THE DANGER RATING TO BE ON THE UPPER END OF
   CONSIDERABLE LEANING TO HIGH particularly on E and SE, and S facing
   aspects later today.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. IT LEAVES FROM THE HUNTINGTON
   FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN RAVINE TRAIL
   AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND CHALLENGING, CRAMPONS,
   AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR
   SAFE TRAVEL.

   THE BEST HOLIDAY GIFT YOU CAN GET YOUR BACKCOUNTRY LOVED ONE TO
   EXPRESS CARING AND CONCERN IS THE AVALANCHE BEACON, PROBE, AND SHOVEL.
   TOO EXPENSIVE? THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SPLIT THE GIFT WITH
   ANOTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND. YOU'LL NEVER REGRET GIVING IT, ONLY REGRET
   NOT GIVING IT.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest