9:02 a.m., Sunday, December 15, 2002

   TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINES HAVE CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER.
   Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are
   probable on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Be
   increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

   The storm that moved into the area over 24 hours ago is moving off to
   our NE and a cold front is currently engulfing the region.
   Temperatures are dropping into the single numbers from a high of 28
   degrees F (-2 C) on the summit yesterday afternoon. Freezing drizzle
   made it all the way to the top of Mt. Washington before switching back
   to snow over the past 10 hours. The summit picked up just under an
   inch of total melted precipitation for the storm, over approximately
   30 hours. This included 5 to 6 inches (13-15 cm) of snow, frozen
   drizzle, ice grains, and pellets. Down here at Hermit Lake we received
   3.5 inches (9 cm) of new 17% snow and frozen precipitation. Above
   freezing temperatures from 10am to 7pm brought with it drizzle and
   brief periods of light rain. Once temperatures dropped below freezing
   a crust began developing on the surface as sub-freezing crept down
   into the snowpack. This occured at 5000-5500 ft (1500-1650 m), above
   treeline and in avalanche start zones, several hours before lower
   elevations at 4000 ft (1200 m). I believe the crust was established
   higher up before the change over to snow which should generate a
   weaker bond at the crust interface than down low. Increasing NW winds
   has loaded, and is currently loading, new snow onto these lee areas.
   In other locations snow bonds are stronger at the crust interface due
   to snow settling on a warmer surface which has allowed loading to
   "stick" a little better. However, as slab formation builds over these
   locations failure could occur just above the crust in colder snow
   crystals or facet growth due to the new strong temperature gradient.
   Staying in areas where the crust is close to the surface would be
   better than in open areas of new slab. But be aware that a natural
   avalanche is possible from above you even though you are in a more
   stable crust dominated area. Show showers are forecasted through the
   day with NW winds from 60-80 mph (100-130 kph) and then diminishing
   later. These conditions will continue loading both Ravines so expect
   an increasing avalanche danger as the day continues. Variable
   conditions exist so don't be lulled into thinking stability is wide
   spread just because you are on a thick crust where you're standing.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. THE ROUTE LEAVES FROM THE
   HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN
   RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND
   CHALLENGING. CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH
   SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL.

   THE BEST HOLIDAY GIFT YOU CAN GET YOUR BACKCOUNTRY LOVED ONE TO
   EXPRESS CARING AND CONCERN IS THE AVALANCHE BEACON, PROBE, AND SHOVEL.
   TOO EXPENSIVE? THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SPLIT THE GIFT WITH
   ANOTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND. YOU'LL NEVER REGRET GIVING IT, ONLY REGRET
   NOT GIVING IT.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest