8:52 a.m., Thursday, December 19, 2002

   TUCKERMAN RAVINE HAS LOW AND MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER. The Lower
   Snowfields, Little Headwall, Hillmans Highway, and Left Gully have Low
   avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikley and human
   triggered avalanche are unlikely, EXCEPT IN ISOLATED POCKETS on steep
   snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal caution is advised. All
   other areas in Tuckerman have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural
   avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible on
   steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Be cautious in steeper
   terrain.

   HUNTINGTON RAVINE HAS LOW AVALANCHE DANGER. Natural avalanches are
   very unlikley and human triggered avalanche are unlikely, EXCEPT IN
   ISOLATED POCKETS on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal
   caution is advised.

   Sun and warming temperatures baked south facing slabs yesterday and
   currently there is a temperature inversion between the summit and the
   valleys. Temps have increased slowly overnight and are at 39 degrees F
   (3 C) here Hermit Lake as of 730 am. This warm weather and sun may
   cause some "snowballing" and potentially some wet loose sluffing. So
   stay conscience of increasing temps particularly on south facing
   aspects. Increasing clouds are forecasted for today with rain,
   freezing rain, and perhaps a bit of snow moving in tonight. All
   elevations should receive rain tomorrow as valley temperatures are
   expected in the mid forties (6-7 C). This should raise the avalanche
   danger, but the snowpack may be able to take the new load unless we
   get sizeable precipitation amounts or short periods of high intensity.
   Usually rain increases the avalanche danger and snow instability
   rapidly which brings the old saying "stay out of avalanche terrain
   when it rains". I know I just said the snow may handle the load and
   followed that with, "watch out"! The reason for this is the snow pack
   has been settling for a few days with warming temperatures allowing
   for sintering and consolidation. So some light rain shouldn't send the
   avalanche danger sky rocketing to High or Extreme. But any slope will
   avalanche with enough load, and rain brings load while melting bonds
   and lubricating ice layers. Tomorrow's avalanche bulletin will discuss
   this in more detail as precipitation amounts become more clear.
   Freezing tempertures will move back in with the potential of light
   snow. Cold temperatures will creep back into the snowpack freezing the
   freewater from tomorrow's rain. So anticipate a breakable crust for
   the weekend with a strong possibility of unconsolidated
   equitemperature snow beneath. This should create travel havoc for the
   backcountry. Also expect a strong temperature gradient for the
   potential for near surface facets as well as new loading of light snow
   for Saturday.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. THE ROUTE LEAVES FROM THE
   HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN
   RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND
   CHALLENGING. CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH
   SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL.

   The John Sherburne ski trail is coming along slowly and improving.
   But, waterbars, rocks, and brush will challenge even the best skier
   for a safe and pleasurable trip down. Rain will degrade an already
   thin trail for the weekend.

   THE BEST HOLIDAY GIFT YOU CAN GET YOUR BACKCOUNTRY LOVED ONE TO
   EXPRESS CARING AND CONCERN IS THE AVALANCHE BEACON, PROBE, AND SHOVEL.
   TOO EXPENSIVE? THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SPLIT THE GIFT WITH
   ANOTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND. YOU'LL NEVER REGRET GIVING IT, ONLY REGRET
   NOT GIVING IT.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest