8:48 a.m., Friday, December 20, 2002

   TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINES HAVE HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER. Natural
   and human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on a variety of aspects and
   slope angles. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

   Hermit Lake has been above freezing for over 24 hours with a high
   yesterday of 42 degrees F (6 C). We dropped in temperature overnight a
   bit and now we are back at 41-42 F (6 C) as of 700am. This has caused
   frozen grains to move back to freewater and perculate down into the
   snowpack. We are currently in the fog and raining. Rain adds load,
   melts bonds and perculates into the pack until it hits an imperabable
   layer. This layer becomes lubricated which offers an excellent sliding
   base for the above snow to slide. The way the temperature regime is
   presenting itself I believe we will stay all rain until the cold front
   hits tonight. At 1600 ft. (490 m) 5 miles south of Mt. Washington as
   well as the summit it was 35 degrees F (2 C)at 500am, but at 3800 ft
   (1160 m) in Tuckerman it was 41 degrees F (5 C) and rising. As the SW
   flow continues temperatures should continue to rise before dropping
   late today. Heavier precipitation should move in late this morning or
   early this afternoon. Although most of the "heavy at times" forecast
   areas should remain south of here we will receive our share. The short
   range base reflectivity radar is showing our area picking up roughly
   .10" (.25 cm) of rain per hour with pockets of .15" (.38 cm) of rain
   per hour and higher heading our way. Freewater that already exists in
   the snowpack in addition to heavier rain coming will increase the
   avalanche danger through the day. It is definitely a day for the hot
   tub. Warm rain will bring heat into the snowpack which will take
   longer to freeze and may present some interesting temperature
   gradients over the next several days. Freezing temperatures tonight
   will begin to freeze the snowpack from the surface down. It is hard to
   call right now if we will have breakable crust or it will be
   supportable. I think travel may be quite grim. At times you may be on
   top and then out of now where, BOOM!, you punch through. Realize this
   as you are out in the mountains this weekend. This may cause lower leg
   injuries or a fall down slope. Lastly snow showers are forecasted
   tonight and on and off over the next week. The big factor tonight will
   be when the temperatures freeze the surface. If snow comes in after a
   cold crust has developed, the bond may be poor for a period before
   heat/vapor from todays rain potentially improves this interface
   strength. We will be discussing this in future bulletins so stay tuned

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. THE ROUTE LEAVES FROM THE
   HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN
   RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND
   CHALLENGING. CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH
   SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL.

   The John Sherburne ski trail is coming along slowly and improving.
   But, waterbars, rocks, and brush will challenge even the best skier
   for a safe and pleasurable trip down. The current rain will freeze the
   ski trail solid! Surface conditions should be something similar to a
   hockey rink pitched at 20-25 degrees.

   THE BEST HOLIDAY GIFT YOU CAN GET YOUR BACKCOUNTRY LOVED ONE TO
   EXPRESS CARING AND CONCERN IS THE AVALANCHE BEACON, PROBE, AND SHOVEL.
   TOO EXPENSIVE? THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SPLIT THE GIFT WITH
   ANOTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND. YOU'LL NEVER REGRET GIVING IT, ONLY REGRET
   NOT GIVING IT.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest