9:48 a.m., Monday, December 23, 2002

   TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINES HAVE MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER.
   Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are
   possible. Use caution in steeper terrain.

   The summit reported 2.4" (6 cm) of snow over the past 24 hours with
   high West winds. Snow showers and light snow is expected today and
   then another 3" (7.5 cm) is forecasted for tonight. That may bring a
   total of forecasted around 7" (18 cm) in 36 hours by tomorrow morning.
   Both Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines are obscured by blowing snow and
   fog offering limited visibility. Snow and blowing snow is being
   brought into lee areas on a variety of aspects by high West winds at
   70-80 mph (117-133 kph). Most new crystals have had a varying degree
   of riming associated with them and many being full grapel. I have been
   finding pockets of soft cohesive slab over loose unconsolidated grapel
   and rimed dendrites and stellars. These unstable pockets will continue
   to load through the day with the heaviest deposits occuring on E and
   SE aspects. Currently there are many areas that still have the old ice
   surface exposed, but lee pockets of new snow will have increasing
   instability through the day. These areas of new snow are not
   widespread, but as they load through the day I believe there
   instability will rise and become quite touchy later. Due to this
   expect the avalanche danger to be rising through the day and will be
   leaning towards Considerable in some locations. This is most likely on
   Tuckerman's E and SE facing aspects particularly in strong lee pockets
   where the heaviest loading should occur. So again, even if you are
   standing on the old ice crust low visibility will keep you from seeing
   what's above. This should be an increasing concern as we move from
   natural avalanches being 'unlikely' to being 'possible' later today.
   The ice crust under this new snow is firm and supporting body weight
   well in most areas, but be ready for the occassional punch through,
   especially near rocks and brush. The facet growth under the ice is
   becoming less of a concern as the crust has strenghened. However we
   will watch it and report anything worth noting. The greatest concern
   over the crust is its varing surface nature. It varies from irregular
   and rough to smooth and slick so consider this when doing stability
   tests. You may get different results based on where you do your pits,
   as always do multiple assessments in numerous locations. This is
   particularly true during periods of high spatial variability as we
   currently have in the ravines. Tonights snow will be followed by a
   brief lull before a significant system brings more snow for Christmas
   Day. Anticipate at least a Moderate or higher avalanche danger for
   most of the week.

   If you are heading into the mountains bring your crampons, ice axe,
   and the ability to use them with skill. Just under the new snow is a
   very slick ice layer under foot or ski. Be aware that a slip on steep
   terrain could result in a fast and uncontrolled fall. Be prepared to
   self arrest. WE HAD A MINOR FALLING ACCIDENT YESTERDAY WHICH COULD OF
   RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT INJURIES. 2 INDIVIDUALS WERE CLIMBING TOWARDS
   THE SLUICE WITH NO REAL PLAN IN MIND. THEY WERE ATTACHED WITH A ROPE,
   HAD CRAMPONS ON, BUT ONLY HAD ONE ICE AXE BETWEEN THEM. ONE FELL
   PLUCKING THE OTHER OFF DUE TO THE ATTACHED ROPE. THEY FELL TOGETHER
   AND SURPRISINGLY AVOIDED SIGNIFICANT INJURIES. IF VENTURING OUT HAVE
   THE CORRECT GEAR AND THE TRAINING TO USE THEM. THESE 2 NEEDED ANOTHER
   ICE AXE AND OF COURSE PROTECTION TO PLACE FOR CLIPPING THE ROPE INTO
   AS THEY MOVED UP SLOPE. ALL A ROPE DOES WITH NO PROTECTION IS ASSURE
   YOU THAT YOU WILL PULL OFF EVERYONE ATTACHED TO IT, THIS IS ESPECIALLY
   TRUE IN ICY CONDITIONS WHEN SELF ARRESTING IS DIFFICULT. If you are
   heading into the mountains to ice climb, watch out for ice dams. With
   Fridays rain (.83"/2.1cm) followed by freezing temperatures, there is
   still of water behind ice that is causing hydrolic pressure. These ice
   dams may relieve the pressure by shooting water out of ice screws or
   pushing tons of ice off once a climbers ice axe has disturbed the
   integrity of the ice.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS NOW OPEN. THE ROUTE LEAVES FROM THE
   HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN
   RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS STEEP AND CHALLENGING
   ROUTE. CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM WITH SKILL
   ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL.

   The John Sherburne ski trail is coming along slowly and improving.
   However, waterbars, rocks, brush and patches of water ice will
   challenge even the best skier for a safe and pleasurable trip down.

   THE BEST HOLIDAY GIFT YOU CAN GET YOUR BACKCOUNTRY LOVED ONE TO
   EXPRESS CARING AND CONCERN IS THE AVALANCHE BEACON, PROBE, AND SHOVEL.
   TOO EXPENSIVE? THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SPLIT THE GIFT WITH
   ANOTHER RELATIVE OR FRIEND. YOU'LL NEVER REGRET GIVING IT, ONLY REGRET
   NOT GIVING IT.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest