8:57 a.m., Saturday, December 28, 2002

   Tuckerman Ravine has Low, Moderate, and Considerable Avalanche Danger.
   Left Gully, Hillmans Highway, the Lower Snowfields, and the Little
   Headwall have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very
   unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in
   isolated pockets on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Normal
   caution is advised. Right Gully, the Bowl, and the Headwall have
   Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human
   triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE. Use caution in steeper terrain. The
   Lip has Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible
   and human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE. Unstable slabs PROBABLE
   on steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

   Huntington Ravine has Low Avalanche Danger. Natural avalanches are
   very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in
   isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

   The summit has remained in the clear over the past 24 hours with no
   precipatation. Clear cold conditions has generated some early stage
   small surface hoar. Due to light winds at higher elevations and calm
   conditions here at Hermit Lake I believe surface hoar can be found in
   some avalanche terrain. We found it some areas and not in others due
   to variable factors such as and pore quality and gradients of
   different surfaces. An old ice surface, hard "windpack" slab, soft
   slab, thin snow cover, and deep thick slab will all produce hoar
   growth at different rates. Snow Showers are forecasted for today and
   tomorrow with moderate West winds. This may load on top of the young
   surface hoar in some areas. Due to it's small size I don't feel the
   surface hoar will become a prevailing factor in widespread instability
   of new loading, but it certainly won't help. If new loading occurs a
   quick shovel shear will demonstrate the bond or weakness of the
   surface hoar interface. A clean easy quality 1 (Q1) shear will give
   you a good indication that if the slab elasticity will propagate a
   fracture, failure on the bed surface is a good probability. So don't
   be overly concerned about surface hoar today, but it is something
   interesting to look at and keep in the corner of your eye if we get
   new snow. Areas of most concern in Tuckerman are the Sluice and
   particularly the Lip. As you move south toward the Chute, the snow
   should be more stable as it has been hammered by the wind into a
   harder slab. The Lip has stayed at Considerable today due to the
   instability from Wednesday and Thursday's snow and from near surface
   blowing snow which loaded the area yesterday. In areas posted at Low,
   there are isolated pockets of instablity so stay on old surface when
   possible. One example of these pockets is the top center of the start
   zone in Left Gully near the horizon. Some of these pockets may also be
   found in unusual places due to the very high winds on Thursday such as
   very low in Huntington Ravine. So use caution on the approach to
   climbs. The fracture line visible yesterday morning was barely
   discernable today. So even though it was a clear blue sky day loading
   did occur, predominitely in the lee of NW and NNW winds. We currently
   have quite variable snow stability conditions. You may find yourself
   going from a "Low" area to a "Moderate" or "Considerable" area very
   quickly so keep your snow stability skills on high alert today. Also
   anticipate the possibility of an increasing avalanche danger with snow
   showers forecasted today and tomorrow.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS OPEN. THE ROUTE LEAVES FROM THE
   HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN
   RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS A STEEP AND
   CHALLENGING ROUTE. CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM
   WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL.

   The John Sherburne ski trail is coming along slowly and improving.
   However, waterbars, rocks, brush and patches of water ice are hiding
   just under the new snow.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest