9:21 a.m., Monday, December 30, 2002

   Tuckerman Ravine has Low, Moderate, and Considerable Avalanche Danger.
   The Little Headwall has LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are
   very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in
   isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. Left Gully, Hillmans
   Highway, and the Lower Snowfields have MODERATE avalanche danger.
   Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are
   possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other areas in Tuckerman
   have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible
   and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious
   in steeper terrain.

   Huntington Ravine has LOW Avalanche Danger. Natural avalanches are
   very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in
   isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

   The summit picked up 4.2 inches (10.5 cm) of new snow over the past 24
   hours bringing the 36 hour total to 5.2 inches (13 cm). Snow fell with
   WNW and NW winds around 50-60 mph (80-100 kph) and increased slightly
   through the day. Winds peaked in the early morning hours and should
   remain high before subsiding later today. Yesterday's weather forecast
   did not pan out at all as snow fell all day into the wee hours this
   morning. Stepped fracture lines are visible in the center bowl and
   under the Lip. At 7 am this fracture was visually sharp and crisp, an
   hour and a half later is has filled in substantially and is currently
   "muted". I believe this avalanche occurred very early this morning,
   after midnight based on the evidence. New snow avalanche activity
   traveling over the previous slab stepped down to the thin weak layer
   ripping out the hard slab. On Saturday we found hard slab over a very
   thin 1 mm layer of what appeared to be intact unconsolidated plates
   and stellar crystals. The layer was so thin it was difficult to
   ascertain the true weakness. However this was bridged by a thick
   pencil to 1 finger hard slab which offered a great deal of tensile
   strength. This is now cover by new snow from yesterday. I believe, as
   mentioned yesterday, that if either natural or human triggered
   avalanche activity occurs over these areas of hard slab it may step
   down to this weakness. So this is still a sizeable concern in areas
   that didn't slide. In particular, areas in the lee of WNW and NW
   winds, namely the Lip, the Sluice, and Right Gully. Good route finding
   skills are very important today. As mentioned in Sunday's bulletin the
   stability is quite variable so you will be moving through changing
   snow stability in avalanche terrain today. In areas posted at Low in
   Huntington Ravine, isolated pockets of instability DO EXIST so stay on
   old surface whenever possible. We currently have quite variable snow
   stability conditions. You may find yourself going through different
   areas of stability very quickly so keep your snow stability skills on
   high alert. The next 24-36 hours will be quite interesting. We are
   expecting snow tonight followed by freezing rain and OH NO! maybe rain
   tomorrow! Currently it is not looking like we will get rain in the
   mountains, but it is something to be prepared for when freezing rain
   is expected. So expect a changing avalanche danger tomorrow. Stay
   tuned.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS OPEN. THE ROUTE LEAVES FROM THE
   HUNTINGTON FIRE ROAD AND HAS ORANGE SIGNS STARTING ON THE TUCKERMAN
   RAVINE TRAIL AT ROUGHLY THE 1.8 MILE MARK. IT IS A STEEP AND
   CHALLENGING ROUTE. CRAMPONS, AN ICE AXE, AND THE ABILITY TO USE THEM
   WITH SKILL ARE REQUIRED FOR SAFE TRAVEL.

   The John Sherburne ski trail is coming along slowly and improving.
   However, waterbars, rocks, brush and patches of water ice are hiding
   just under the new snow.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o THIS AVALANCHE BULLETIN WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest