9:25 a.m., Friday, January 10, 2003

   Tuckerman Ravine has MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger today.
   The Little Headwall and the Lower Snowfields have MODERATE avalanche
   danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches
   are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other areas in
   Tuckerman have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are
   possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs
   are probable on steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper
   terrain.

   Huntington Ravine has MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches
   are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution
   in steeper terrain.

   The summit received another 1.8" (4.5cm) of snow over the past 24
   hours. This adds up to a bit over 5 inches in past 48 hours with winds
   between 30-80 mph from the NW, WNW, and W. This new snow, in addition
   to all the snow movement from last weekends storm, has brought in a
   significant amount of loading on many aspects. There are variable
   stability conditions out there today within the same danger rating. In
   Tuckerman, the Headwall, Bowl, and Lip are areas that are on the upper
   end of the Considerable rating, having just coming down from the High
   rating yesterday. Other locations with a Considerable rating such as
   Left Gully are on the lower end approaching Moderate. So realize that
   even though multiple areas fall under the appropriate definition of
   Considerable the stability varies. Anticipate more snow this weekend
   with snow showers in the forecast. If these snow showers give us an
   appreciable amount of snow, be prepared for increasing avalanche
   danger. If you are planning a trip into the mountains this weekend, be
   prepared for full arctic conditions. The cold front in the area is
   forecasted to bring sub-zero temperatures approaching -20 degrees F to
   the North Country. Be prepared for extreme arctic weather conditions
   above treeline. These conditions will slow the settling and sintering
   rates of the snowpack. Expect unstable slabs found today to persist
   through the weekend in many locations. Some of the gullies between
   Lion Head and Right Gully picked up so much new snow from last
   weekends storm that you need to pay attention to stay on the Lion Head
   trail when going towards the summit. It is possible in a few locations
   to wander into avalanche terrain just 10 meters south of the trail
   cairns. This is something to keep in mind through out the winter.

   Over the next few days I figured I would discuss a bit about Direct
   Action and Indirect Action avalanche activity. Mt. Washington is in
   what we call a Arctic/Maritime Climate. We are at the convergence of
   most typical storm tracks coming across the country whether they come
   aross just south of the Great Lakes, a Nor'easter coming up the coast,
   or an Alberta Clipper coming down from Canada. In a matter of a few
   days we can have all 3 of these examples occur. 2 inches of rain may
   fall with a Central U.S. storm track creating High avalanche danger
   followed immediately by a Canadian cold front creating a 50 degree
   temperature change in 12 hours. This drastic change can create a
   concreate slab 3 feet thick causing Low avalanche danger. The next day
   a Nor'easter comes up the coast dumping 20 inches of snow on the
   existing icy hockey rink pitched at 35-55 degrees causing High
   avalanche danger. This up and down avalanche rating can be quite
   common in our climate regime. Tomorrow we'll discuss how this all fits
   into direct/indirect avalanche problems and exactly what it means.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS OPEN. The route leaves from the
   Huntington Fire Road and has orange signs starting on the Tuckerman
   Ravine trail at roughly the 1.8 mile mark. It is a steep and
   challenging route. Crampons, an ice axe, and the ability to use them
   with skill are required for safe travel. Snow fields are growing
   particularly near treeline just off the winter route. As winter
   progresses these will increase in size causing possible avalanche
   activity. Avalanche skills are always required to travel safely in the
   mountains. Be prepared to do your own stability assessments.

   The John Sherburne ski trail has improved with this past storm. There
   are a few problem waterbars and rocks still hidden just under the new
   snow.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.
   For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service
   Snow Rangers: AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center
   or Hermit Lake Shelters.
   THIS AVALANCHE BULLETIN WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest