8:48 a.m., Sunday, January 12, 2003

   WE NOW HAVE ALL OUR BULLETINS ARCHIVED SO YOU CAN SEE THE AVALANCHE
   TREND AS FAR BACK AS YOU LIKE. SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE AND
   CLICK ON ARCHIVED BULLETINS.

   Tuckerman Ravine has MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger today.
   The Left Gully, Hillmans Highway, the Lower Snowfields, and the Little
   Headwall have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are
   unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in
   steeper terrain. All other areas in Tuckerman have CONSIDERABLE
   avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered
   avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable on steep terrain.
   Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

   Huntington Ravine has MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches
   are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution
   in steeper terrain.

   The summit received a bit more than a trace of snow over the past 24
   hours adding up to about 8 inches over the past several days. Winds
   peaked yesterday at 102 mph with an average around 80 mph. This has
   caused quite a mixed bag out there for snow conditions. Hard slab can
   be found in areas exposed to yesterdays and current high winds. This
   is particularly true in Huntington where scouring will be found in
   multiple locations. However, be aware large pockets of slab can be
   found on aspects in the stong lee of Saturdays W and WNW winds. Once
   again there are variable stability conditions out there today within
   the same danger rating. For example, areas on the south side of the
   Bowl under the Chute have greater stability than the north under the
   Lip. So realize that even though multiple areas fall under the
   appropriate definition of Considerable the stability varies. Snow
   showers are forecasted through the weekend so be prepared for an
   increasing avalanche danger. Cold temperatures continue to slow the
   settling and sintering rates of the snowpack. Some of the gullies
   between Lion Head and Right Gully picked up so much new snow from last
   weekends storm that you need to pay attention to stay on the Lion Head
   trail when going towards the summit. It is possible in a few locations
   to wander into avalanche terrain just 10 meters south of the trail
   cairns. This is something to keep in mind through out the winter.

   We left off yesterday with a discussion of Indirect action avalanche
   activity. In many western snowpacks, such as Intermountain or
   Continential, instability may be increasing even though crystal blue
   sky days and clear nights prevail. If enough temperature gradient
   exists, through the day time and diurnal process, facets may be
   growing and getting larger every day. As these get larger their points
   of contact, or bonds, become smaller like a house of cards. This may
   cause avalanche activity even though it has been clear for a couple of
   weeks. Although it could happen here I have never seen this scenario
   occur in the Presidentials without significant contributing weather
   events. We do get facet growth in our snowpack however. Of the
   different facet variations, near surface faceting is the dominate form
   effecting avalanche activity on Mt. Washington. But it sets itself up
   as the weak layer failing after new snow fall. Tomorrow we'll discuss
   the ease and difficulties forcasting for indirect and direct
   avalanches, focusing on the latter.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS OPEN. The route leaves from the
   Huntington Fire Road and has orange signs starting on the Tuckerman
   Ravine trail at roughly the 1.8 mile mark. It is a steep and
   challenging route. Crampons, an ice axe, and the ability to use them
   with skill are required for safe travel. Snow fields are growing
   particularly near treeline just off the winter route. As winter
   progresses these will increase in size causing possible avalanche
   activity. Avalanche skills are always required to travel safely in the
   mountains. Be prepared to do your own stability assessments.

   The John Sherburne ski trail has improved with this past storm. There
   are a few problem waterbars and rocks still hidden just under the new
   snow.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.
   For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service
   Snow Rangers: AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center
   or Hermit Lake Shelters.
   THIS AVALANCHE BULLETIN WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest