Tuckerman Ravine has LOW and MODERATE avalanche danger today. The Little Headwall has LOW avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. All other areas in Tuckerman Ravine have MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE. Unstable slabs are possible in steep terrain. Use caution in steeper terrain.

Huntington Ravine has MODERATE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE. Unstable slabs are possible in steep terrain. Use caution in steeper terrain.

Areas that were Low yesterday remain so this morning at 8:00am. However, snow will persist through the day with a couple of inches expected for the mountains. The key ingredient today will be the winds. They are forecasted to begin out of the SW and move to the NW later today with speeds between 40-60 mph (65-100 kph). This will be the ideal scenario to load most aspects in both ravines. So a couple inches of snow could turn into between a foot or two in strong lee pockets. The rating of Moderate is forecasted for the anticipated conditions later today so an early start would be better than heading out after lunch. Areas that were Moderate in Tuckerman yesterday, namely the Lip, the Sluice, and Right Gully should stay that way, but plan on these areas potentially being on the upper end of the rating hedging to Considerable. The problem we have been watching is the continued weaking facet layer in the snowpack. The very cold weather over the past 10 days has generated a significant temperature gradient causing facet or angular crystal growth. This is particularly true in areas that are thinly covered. Pockets of brush, rocks, and areas scoured by winds are being influenced most dramatically by the facet growth. We have found very inconsistant results with stability tests due mostly to the depth of the weak layer. Most of the Bowl has a wind pack layer around 3 feet thick covering facets which aren't as large as the thinner cover found on the northern side of the ravine. The deeper the facets the more tensile strength dominates and the less your "impact bulb" will effect this weak layer. Basically, the thicker the slab the more the slab will dissipate your weight on the weaknesses beneath. The thickness and tensile strength of these slabs is a significant factor in the stability of areas on the south side of the Ravine. We feel that in areas between the Lip and Right gully a skier or climber could find the right "sweet spot". This "sweet spot" could be a thinner area of the slab over buried brush or rocks. If this occurs, the avalanche triggered could be larger than an isolated pocket. The snow coming in today will load over these thinner areas as winds shift through the W to the NW. If enough snow is loaded this will add more weight and stress to this already weak layer adding to the instability. These pockets of deep facets could become buried and be the "sweet spots" for triggering an avalanche. If an avalanche occurs from new loading over the next couple of days it wouldn't surprise me to seen it step down into this weak layer depending on location. We will continue watching facet growth as very cold temperatures are expected through the week. Night time temperatures are expected between -10 and -20 degrees F (-24 to -29 C) over the next few nights so the snowpack should weaken as facets become larger. This brings up the arctic weather coming into the mountains from the west. The cold front associated with todays snow will draw in very cold temperatures, but unlike the -20 F (-29 C) temps with calm air we had this week, expect windy conditions. Wind should eliminate temperature inversions so expect very cold summit conditions this week with wind making for full on Arctic weather.

AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

We observed some light natural ice dams blow outs in Huntington and Tuckerman Ravines at approximately the same time yesterday. Why exactly they occured at the same time I don't know. Coincidence? Maybe. But, more than likely this cold snap is stressing the ice beyond what it can take. Use caution while climbing ice and realize rock protection would probably be a better choice than ice gear.

THE WINTER LION HEAD ROUTE IS OPEN. The route leaves from the Huntington Fire Road and has orange signs starting on the Tuckerman Ravine trail at roughly the 1.8 mile mark. It is a steep and challenging route. Crampons, an ice axe, and the ability to use them with skill are required for safe travel. Avalanche skills are always required to travel safely in the mountains. Be prepared to do your own stability assessments.

The John Sherburne ski trail needs new snow. Ski and boarder traffic is slowly exposing earth in places. Be aware that there are still a few problem waterbars and rocks hidden just under the surface.

SATURDAY WE PUT 11 NEW PICTURES OF SNOW PITS, RUTSCHBLOCK STABILITY TESTS, TUCKERMAN, AND HUNTINGTON ON OUR WEBSITE TUCKERMAN.ORG. SO CHECK THEM OUT!

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