Light rain has begun on the summit as of 8:00 am Wednesday and is expected to increase and persist through Thursday morning. Models are consistantly producing between 2.5 cm (1 inch) and 3.75 cm (1.5 inches) of liquid precipatation through the event. Rain on snow increases stress, melts bonds, and may lubricate ice layers. I believe instabilities will increase, but due to the size, varibility, and isolated nature of snowfields we are sticking with a General Advisory. A 5 scale danger rating would currently overstate the problem, but realize some small areas in the Tuckerman Bowl are the primary concern and will become more unstable as rain amounts increase. Instability should peak during the overnight if the weather precipatation models play out.

These snowfields are used by ice climbers to link bulges of ice early each climbing season. The current spatial variability is a concern due to varying amounts of pooled graupel and the percent of the bed surface under each pocket that may be blue water ice. Some bed surfaces may have all ice, all vegatation, all irregular rock surfaces, or a combination of of these. In addition to the variety of bed surfaces early season instability can also vary due to size of the pocket and the anchors holding it in place. Although rain will increase the instability of these snow pockets around the Ravines it will be isolated due to limited snow coverage. So once again you may see a rise in instability, but it will be isolated due to tremendous variability from area to area. Although there are concerns as discussed above, we just don't have much snow on the ground yet. We will see how this weather maker plays out, but currently I expect a General Advisory to run through the week.

Be aware that a small slab or sluff can be very dangerous. This is particularly true in the steep gullies and slopes of Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines for early season ice climbers. As a climber picks their way through a route they will usually cross small pockets of snow. Approach these early season snowfields with some skepticism and be conservative while on them or in their runout zones. It doesn't take much snow to knock you off your feet and depending how high you are this could be a significant problem. Placing ice or rock protection isn't a guarantee of security, but it has saved many from avalanche injuries or worse on Mount Washington.

Be aware of falling ice in both Ravines with warm temperatures and rain forecasted over the next few days. Many folks have been injured and killed by falling ice so pay attention to where you are, and don't linger when under ice. Have a plan in mind about what you will do and where you will go if ice comes down. Station yourself near a large rock to duck behind in the event of ice fall. Be ice smart.

Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.

AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions. cÿ