| Posted: 8:40 a.m., Saturday, January 3, 2004 |
We picked up 4 cm (1.6 in) of new 6.4 % snow yesterday with light to moderate SW and W winds. Even this small amount brought in new loading in strong lee areas. In Tuckerman we found near knee deep pockets in heavily protected locations. In Huntington climbers found the same in Central gully when decending late in the day. As of 7:00 this morning snow began again and is forecasted to change to freezing rain. There is a possibility that it could change to rain near the end of the event in the early afternoon. Between 1.25 and 2.5 cm (.5 and 1.0 inch) of water equivalent is expected, but it will all come down to temperature regimes aloft and the type of precipitation is creates. As warm air aloft becomes entrenched over the colder air below expect snow to change over to freezing rain and rain causing an inverted snopack. Freezing rain adds load but doesn't necessarily melt bonds and perculate down through the snowpack. If it does rain later expect the snow instability to rise more rapidly than the change to freezing rain. So, it will all come down to how much total water equivalant we receive and when the change over occurs. The Ravines are not currently at Considerable, but if the weather forecast plays out as expected it will get there by this afternoon. Pay attention to changing weather and change your route and plans accordingly. Expect your decent routes to have a higher avalanche danger later in the day.
Some clearing is anticipated late in the day before the next system bringing snow in tomorrow.
The John Sherburne ski trail has variable conditions. Expect variable conditions with areas of ice, some blowouts, abrupt water bars, open holes, and running water.
THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route. Ice axe, crampons, and the skill to use them well are necessary for safe travel. Remember, it is always easier to go up than come down.
AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.
| Please Remember: | ||
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Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
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