| Posted: 9:03 a.m., Saturday, February 21, 2004 |
Huntington Ravine has Moderate and Considerable avalanche danger. The escape Hatch, Yale, Damnation, and North Gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikley and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. All other forecasted gullies have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.
Light snow began yesterday evening around 6pm with winds out of the SW, SSW, and S. Winds have remained out of the south since 10pm and have slowly increased from 25kph (15 mph) to the current of 75 kph (47 mph). Winds are expected to remain out of the south in the 65-80 kph (40-50 mph) range for the rest of the day. We expect winds to shift later tonight moving through the west. As of midnight the summit received 5cm (2 in) of light 6.5% density snow. Since then they have picked up about another 1.25cm (.5 in) of heavier density crystals. Currently rimed spatial dendrites, needles, and occasional columns are falling creating a dense layer over the light fluffy unconsolidated snow that began falling yesterday evening. We are in a precipitation lull right now, but radar indicates another band of moisture approaching later this morning. Although we are only half way to the forecasted 15 cm (6 in) we still believe the snow will pick up again later today. The greatest concern is the development of unstable slabs over unconsolidated snow on northern aspects. Also expect the cross loading of easterly aspects with protected lee areas due to terrain features. Snow falling on NE through S aspects will load over a strong sun crust that developed from clear sunny skies Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Although south winds should not significantly load these locations today, anticipate cross loaded areas to have poor bonding with the sun crust. If snowfall reaches the maximum precipitation expected by the weather forecast of 15cm (6in) expect Moderate areas in Tuckerman with easterly aspects to reach the upper end of the rating. The ratings of Considerable and Moderate are posted to reflect conditions anticipated if the weather forecast plays out. As of right now we are not at the assigned ratings quite yet. The avalanche danger will increase as the day progresses if new snow continues to fall. Keep this in mind later today as you descend. As winds shift tonight new loading will pick up on all aspects so expect an elevated avalanche danger on Sunday and Monday.
The John Sherburne ski trail has a skim coat of new powder over mostly hard pack snow. Anticipate water ice and rocks to be hidden by a veil of powder. Though the surface looks good be prepared for these hidden hazards and sudden changes in the trail.
THE LION HEAD WINTER ROUTE IS OPEN. This is a steep and challenging route. Ice axe, crampons, and the skill to use them well are necessary for safe travel. Remember, it is always easier to go up than come down.
AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.
| Please Remember: | ||
|
Avalanche Advisory Archives.
United States Avalanche Danger Descriptions.
Échelle Canadienne de risque d’avalanche.
| Back to the Tuckerman Ravine Home Page |