Forecasts are calling for scattered and broken cloud cover for Tuesday, Wednesday, and into Thursday. The percent chance of precipitation is hovering between 5-10% until late Thursday and Friday morning when flurries are expected. The trough moving into the area at the 18,000 ft. level should not have enough upper air support to produce much moisture, but we'll be keeping an eye on it as it passes over the mountains. The next forecasted chance of precipitation is expected to bring some rain to the area for Sunday and Monday. But a lot can happen between now than then.

Last week's storm created some good sized snowfields that will serve as the bed surface for potential avalanche activity in the future. Remember that even a few centimeters can elevate the avalanche danger if moderate to strong winds are involved. The recent clear skies associated with early season thin snowpacks have created some strong temperature gradients. With clouds re-entering the area expect this trend to subside as it reduces heat loss from the snowpack compared to the long wave radiational loss to the open sky. We'll watch how the snow from last week's storm changes over time and becomes buried by other layers during early winter. This is more of a concern in thin areas on uniform slopes such as the top of Left gully, high in the Chute, and areas in Damnation. Slopes broken up in size by ledges, ice, and rock outcroppings may have small isolated instabilities, but should not create as many long term buried weaknesses as large consistent thin slopes.

If you are thinking about heading into the Ravines to go ice climbing realize that the ice has been a little slow to develop. Cold temperatures have begun the growth but most routes are not quite in shape and provide scrappy mixed climbing. Although a few routes have been done this season most climbers have reported thin detached ice with little or no protection. A heavy concentration on rock gear would be smart. Make sure you know what you're in for before attempting your season's inaugural pitch! Early season mistakes often have dramatic consequences as rock and ledge aren't quite as soft as the powder cushion later in the season. We have heard of some interesting stories through the grapevine already. Be smart, climb safe.

We are in early winter in the high mountains. Don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through Ravines and Gulfs are collecting snow quickly and will require appropriate winter skills and equipment to negotiate them safely. Also, be aware of falling ice if we get into thaw periods before the real deep winter freeze.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills, including rescue techniques. Pull out your beacon, install new batteries, and practice, Practice!, PRACTICE!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR BUDDY!! Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We will have all the avalanche courses offered in the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org very soon.