The forecasted "wintry mix" for Saturday and Sunday was right on as the Summit picked up about 5 cm (2 in) of new snow followed by a mix of frozen precipitation and drizzle. This settled quickly with very little wind transport occuring. Skies should clear into Tuesday when mostly sunny conditions are expected. Clouds will thicken creating a 50% chance of showers on Wednesday. Rain is likely through "Thanksgiving Eve" reducing to a 40% chance of showers on Thursday. The temperatures are expected to drop Thursday evening with a 40% chance of precipitation. Right now this appears the most likely chance of snow in the future. As always we will watch any moisture coming into the area and assess its influence on avalanche potential.

The storm that hit the mountain two weeks ago created some good sized snowfields that will serve as the bed surface for potential avalanche activity in the future. The largest of these exists in Left Gully and above the Headwall from the Lip to the Chute. Remember that even a few centimeters can elevate the avalanche danger if moderate to strong winds are involved.

If you are thinking about heading into the Ravines to go ice climbing realize that the ice has been a little slow to develop. Most routes are not quite in shape and provide scrappy mixed climbing. Consistent cold temperatures have not yet set in for around the clock freezing so expect poorly attached ice in many locations. Climbers out during the early season have confirmed these conditions. The few routes that have been done this season are reported as "thin detached ice with little or no protection" or "dude,.. thin hollow top-outs" Make sure you know what you're in for before attempting your season's inaugural pitch! We have heard of some interesting stories through the grapevine already. Be smart, climb safe.

We are in early winter in the high mountains. Don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs are collecting snow quickly and will require appropriate winter skills and equipment to negotiate them safely. Also, be aware of falling ice if we get into thaw periods before the real deep winter freeze.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills, including rescue techniques. Pull out your beacon, install new batteries, and practice, Practice!, PRACTICE!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR BUDDY!! Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.