It looks like we are in for some dynamic weather over the next few days. Rain is expected to move into the region on Wednesday afternoon and persist through Thanksgiving day. This may start out as snow in the mountains but is expected to change to all rain late in the day on Wednesday. We could see as much as 3.5 cm (1.38") of rain before a cold front changes things back to winter. This cold front is expected to move in on Thanksgiving night and some weather models show the potential for summit temperatures to go from 4C (40F) to -17C (0F) within 24 hours. During the day on Friday, winds will be out of the NW gusting to 160 kph (100mph). This chain of weather events should create challenging conditions in the mountains. The rain will melt and detach the already thin ice that ice climbers may be thinking about getting on this weekend. The dramatic drop in temperatures, paired with the moisture that is expected to precede the cold front will probably result in an ice encrusted mountain. Walking on trails could prove to be very difficult. As the cold front settles in on Friday it is also expected to touch off snow showers. These snow showers are forecasted throughout the weekend. We will be keeping a close eye on these in hopes that they are persistent and pile up some snow in the mountains. If we do get appreciable snowfall, be prepared for localized instabilities. The storm that hit the mountain two weeks ago created some good sized snowfields that will serve as the bed surface for potential avalanche activity. The largest of these exists in Left Gully and above the Headwall from the Lip to the Chute. Remember that even a few centimeters can elevate the avalanche danger if moderate to strong winds are involved.

As mentioned, the rain paired with thin and poorly bonded ice should make you suspicious of ice climbing conditions this weekend. We may see rapid ice development after the cold front moves in but it will be very sudden which will possibly result in brittle and thin ice. Think about all of these factors before you launch up an ice flow.

We are in early winter in the high mountains. Don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs are collecting snow quickly and will require appropriate winter skills and equipment to negotiate them safely. Also, be aware of falling ice if we get into thaw periods before the real deep winter freeze.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills, including rescue techniques. Pull out your beacon, install new batteries, and practice, Practice!, PRACTICE!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR BUDDY!! Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.