It looks like December is going to greet us with a storm! A front is expected to move into our area during the early hours of Wednesday morning and persist through the day. Some weather models are suggesting the low will pass right over us, however, all the models are not in agreement. This is significant because it determines how much snow we will get. If the low tracks north and pulls warm air up with it we can expect anywhere from 5-10 cm (2-4") of snow complimented by sleet. If the low stays to the south we will see less sleet and possibly 15 to 25 cm (6-10") of snow. The liquid equivalent for this storm could be as high as 2.2 cm (.85"). As the storm begins the winds will be out of the S and SE and gradually wrap to the NW and increase by Thursday. This is a classic pattern that typically loads snow into both Ravines. There are still some large snowfields left over that can act as a bed surface for the new snow coming in. The largest of these snowfields exist in Left Gully and above the Chute in Tuckerman Ravine. In other areas, localized instabilites could be an issue for climbers as well. Recent rains followed by cold temperatures created a glaze of ice across the mountain. This ice will provide a poor bonding surface for any new snow. Even a small pocket of unstable snow can cause problems for people. So, if you are planning on heading into avalanche terrain over the next couple of days, keep your eye on the weather and be thinking about instability and the possibility of avalanches.

We are in early winter in the high mountains. Don't plan on being able to follow summer trails safely. Trails going through ravines and gulfs are collecting snow quickly and will require appropriate winter skills and equipment to negotiate them safely. Also, be aware of falling ice if we get into thaw periods before the real deep winter freeze. Due to recent rain and freezing temperatures, hiking trails are very slippery! Plan some extra time to get to your destination and consider using crampons and ski poles for traction.

Don't wait any longer to refresh your avalanche skills, including rescue techniques. Pull out your beacon, install new batteries, and practice, Practice!, PRACTICE!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR BUDDY!! Review your safe travel rules, techniques for assessing snow stability, and sign up for an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.