Tuckerman Ravine has Considerable and Low avalanche danger. Right Gully, Little Headwall and Lower Snowfields have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. All other forecast areas in Tuckerman Ravine have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable in steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

Huntington Ravine has Considerable, Moderate and Low avalanche danger. South, Odell's, Pinnacle, Central, Yale and Damnation Gullies have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. North Gully has Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. Escape Hatch has Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised.

The winds have picked up once again on the mountain and the air is filled with blowing snow. As the sun set yesterday the winds increased in velocity and began their steady path out of the W with brief stints out of both the WSW and WNW. Every hourly report from the summit since yesterday ealry evening has included blowing snow with winds in the 97 kph (60 mph) range. These winds have had little problem relocating the low density snow that had sat undisturbed on the mountain for the past day and a half. Higher density snow and graupel continue to fall this morning and are added to the wind-transported crystals. All of this windborne snow is undoubtedly being packed into windslab on lee aspects. These slabs are being formed over the unconsolidated snow in more wind sheltered areas. Not a good combination! Between the shifting winds and the crossloading due to recirculating winds within the ravines, you can expect to see windslab develop on many aspects.

With winds expected to remain out of the W today at 80-129kph (50-80mph), areas in the direct lee may approach the upper end of their forecasted rating. Because the danger rating scale is a continuum, we have areas within the same forecasted rating at both ends of that particular rating. Areas like Left and Central Gullies are in the lee of current winds and have large snowfields that have combined to form long avalanche paths. Other areas rated Considerable today such as Hillman's and South Gully have their lower reaches dominated by small pockets of snow and lots of bushes. Don't be fooled though because if the visibility were better you'd be able to see the sizeable snowfields that have developed in their starting zones. Those bushes need to get buried at some point! In between these examples, you will find plenty of snowfields that are continuing to grow. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche. Areas posted at Low today are not without avalanche danger but their instability is generally limited to smaller pockets that have yet to unite and form larger snowfields. Historically, we tend to have more avalanche accidents during the early season. Many of these accidents have involved ice climbers who enjoy getting out in the Ravines, particularly Tuckerman, before the ice gets buried under snow. A small pocket of snow can seem insignificant compared to larger avalanche prone slopes, but it is important to consider the consequences of the area failing. Safe travel techniques, knowledge of recent weather events and the ability to assess snow stability are crucial skills and information for ice climbers venturing into the Ravines. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be use along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack and avalanche rescue.