Tuckerman Ravine has LOW and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Right Gully, Little Headwall and Lower Snowfields have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. All other forecast areas in Tuckerman Ravine have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable on steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

Huntington Ravine has LOW, MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The Escape Hatch and North Gully have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. South, Yale and Damnation Gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. ODells, Pinnacle and Central Gullies have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

Today's weather promises to be dynamic. Light snow began falling on the summit yesterday afternoon and has continued through this morning. It hasn't really amounted to a whole lot but the light winds haven't really had the chance to move it around yet. Forecasts are calling for changes in the weather to occur as we approach the early afternoon. Snow will pick up in intensity as will the winds. We can expect the snow to eventually change to some sort of frozen rain or sleet as the droplets fall through the colder surface air from their origin in the warm air aloft. At least its better than rain! What it looks like will happen is the formation of an upsidedown snowpack where we see heavy dense layers overlying a light unconsolidated layer. Not only does gravity want to pull a heavy crystal downhill but these tightly packed crystals will have the cohesion to pull lots of their neighbors down as well. We expect windslab to develop in areas in the lee of the projected SW winds although other areas such as the Lip will likely see some slab formation as well due to crossloading. With all of that said, we are not yet at the Considerable rating in most areas but will move toward it as the day progresses. If you're planning on getting out there today make sure you keep a watch on the sky and the changing snow underfoot. The past week has given us a variety of layers of windslab, graupel, unconsolidated snow and windpack. Do your stability tests and get feel for how the season's snowpack is developing.

At this point in the season some areas have progressed more quickly than others. Large snowfields have developed in some areas such as Left Gully while others like Right Gully are still wanting and are very jealous of their neighbors. The terrain has isolated and broken up many instabilities into smaller islands which reduces the overall hazard, but consider the consequences of an avalanche of any size before barreling into a particular pocket or open slope. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is improving with every bit of snow we receive. It is still undoubtedly in early season condition and you can expect abrupt waterbars, lots of bushes and rocks hidden under the new snow.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be use along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.