Tuckerman Ravine has LOW and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Right Gully, Little Headwall and Lower Snowfields have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. All other forecast areas in Tuckerman Ravine have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Unstable slabs are probable on steep terrain. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

Huntington Ravine has LOW, MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The Escape Hatch and North Gully have Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. South and Yale Gullies have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Use caution in steeper terrain. ODells, Pinnacle and Central and Damnation Gullies have Considerable avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain.

Well we certainly have seen a classic Wintry mix over the past 24 hours. We started with light snow, went to ice pellets, back to an hour of intense snowfall at 6pm, back to icing, sleet, and a bit of rain as we crept above freezing this morning. The summit total came to 2.25cm (.89in) of melted water equivalent which included 11cm (4.3in) of snow and ice pellets for a 24hr average density of 20.6 percent. AKA-heavy! As we hover around freezing the concern is wet slab avalanche and potentially some point releases in some deeper pockets. The SSE through WSW winds did some direct loading and cross loading of associated aspects, but the wind direction and high density snow/ice did not factor as prominently as anticipated.

A secondary surface Low pressure developing off the coast will assist in drawing a northwesterly flow through the mountains bringing in colder air. Models are still demonstrating a strong gradient which will increase wind speeds on Mount Washington dramatically. Although the NWS is calling for speeds of 105kph (65 mph) with higher gusts, these gusts may be sustained and in excess of 160kph (100mph). Cold air has already pushed in dropping the temperature from freezing at 3am to a current of -5C (23F) on the Summit. As cooler temperatures crawl down the mountain in elevation and deeper into the snowpack except the thickening crust to increase the tensile strength of the snowpack and subsequently the overall stability. However the low pushing through should trigger some snow showers for the higher mountains today so consider how new snow on crust will effect stability during the afternoon. Many factors will play into how this develops. How quickly does the crust form? Is the crust surface rough or smooth? Will new snow fall as the crust develops and bond well? And will enough snow fall over a thin crust insulating it from dropping temperatures are just several possibilities of how it could play out. Pay attention to snowpack changes and how the timing of dropping temperatures and new precipitation effect stability.

At this point in the season some areas have progressed more quickly than others. Large snowfields have developed in some areas such as Left Gully while others like Right Gully are still wanting and are very jealous of their neighbors. The terrain has isolated and broken up many instabilities into smaller islands which reduces the overall hazard, but consider the consequences of an avalanche of any size before barreling into a particular pocket or open slope. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is improving with every bit of snow we receive. It is still undoubtedly in early season condition and you can expect abrupt waterbars, lots of bushes and rocks hidden under yesterdays new snow. 10cm (4in) of wet snow should develop a crust through the day making it a bit more challenging so be prepared for less than ideal conditions.

As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be use along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.