Huntington Ravine CURRENTLY has LOW and MODERATE avalanche danger. The Escape Hatch has Low avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are very unlikely and human triggered avalanches are unlikely except in isolated pockets. Normal caution is advised. All other forecast areas in Huntington Ravine have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. Unstable slabs are possible in steep terrain. Use caution in steeper terrain.

The storm system that is currently effecting our weather has been a tricky one to figure out. Temperatures have been very close to the freezing mark in the mountains. Right now Hermit Lake is at 0.7 C (32.5 F) and the Summit is at -2 C (28 F). Over the past 24 hours the Summit has received 9.6 cm (3.7") of snow and mixed precipitation with a density of 14.6% and Hermit Lake has received 10 cm (3.9") of heavy snow. Generally speaking, this new snow is not cohesive in the manner required to form a slab. Some areas in the upper reaches of northerly aspects may have seen some wind loading and slab formation during the day yesterday but we do not feel that these new slabs are large or widespread. The new heavy snow is adding weight to slabs that formed earlier in the week. With this new load on these slabs, additional weight (like you) may not be tolerated. Today's stability rating depends on how the weather forecast plays out. The higher summit's forecast is calling for mixed precipitation today with a total liquid equivalent of .6 cm (.24"). The intensity and form that this precipitation falls as is a critical factor in the stability increasing or decreasing. While it is forecasted to be mixed frozen precipitation we are concerned with the potential for it to fall as rain. If today's precipitation does falls as rain, especially intense rain, be prepared for all forecast areas to move to Considerable. Our concern with this scenario is that the rain will add weight to the snowpack, erode existing crust layers and break down bonds between the snow grains. One particular area of cocern would be a layer of facets observed growing beneath Tuesday's crust. This could be enough to tip the scale of stress and strength causing existing slabs to fail. This scenario could also start loose snow avalanches on any aspect. These loose snow avalanches can be dangerous on their own and they can impact existing slabs causing them to fail. To summarize this story, you need to watch today's weather very closely and understand how it will effect the snowpack.

The John Sherburne Ski Trail is improving with every bit of snow we receive. It is still undoubtedly in early season condition and you can expect abrupt waterbars, lots of bushes and rocks hidden under new snow. A thin .5cm (.2in) crust should make it a bit more challenging so be prepared for less than ideal conditions.

Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski or recreate on it's large enough to avalanche. As always, this advisory is one more tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. It should be use along with your own snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill in reading mountain weather's effect on the snowpack and avalanche rescue. To improve these skills take an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in and around the Mt. Washington Valley this winter on our website, tuckerman.org.